784
FXUS63 KGLD 142317
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
517 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AS THE MAIN HAZARD. LARGE HAIL AND BLOWING
DUST ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FAVORED AREA IS EASTERN COLORADO AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES.
- GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND 100S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 100
DEGREES. A FEW LOCALES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 COULD STILL HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WHICH IS CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
MORE FROM THE NORTH FOR LOCALES NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER. FOR
LOCALES UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THE LOW, THE WINDS WILL LIKELY VARY
IN DIRECTION WHILE TRYING TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
ON TOP OF VARYING THE WINDS, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SET UP, STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIRE UP
IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES AND TRY TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THEY ARE FORECAST TO FORM IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINAL
SUPPORT DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND THE CONTINUED UPPER
SUBSIDENCE. WITH THIS, MOST STORMS ATTEMPTS SHOULD FAIL OR LEAD TO
SHORT LIVED STORMS. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50-60 MPH (70 MAX) WITH THE DRIER AIR ALLOWING FOR HIGHER
DCAPE AND LEADING TO INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. IF A STORM CAN SURVIVE
LONG ENOUGH, LARGE HAIL COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY WITH MUCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 C/KM.
ANOTHER CONCERN WITH STORMS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF DENSE
BLOWING DUST WITH THE RECENT AND DRY CONDITIONS. WE MAY END UP BEING
TOO MIXED FOR NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY, BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RE-CENTER
FURTHER NORTH WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING A BIT MORE DIFFUSE
OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS, THE STORM RISK SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH AND THE EARLY CLOUD COVER, LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
FOR FRIDAY, ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100 AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING. THAT BEING SAID, AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED UPSTREAM OVER THE
WESTERN COAST. THIS SHOULD SEND A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER THE AREA,
WHILE ALSO HELPING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RECENTER DOWN CLOSER TO
THE AREA. WITH THIS, STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA. THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 40S, WHICH
WOULD LOWER INSTABILITY AND STORM CHANCES WITH THE CONTINUED WEAK
UPPER SUBSIDENCE. THAT BEING SAID, SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FOR ANY
STORM THAT COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE FAVORED AREA WOULD AGAIN BE
EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
TOMORROW NIGHT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE 60S AND 70S WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A
TROUGH UPSTREAM. THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE STORMS AS SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WHEN
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE AT IT LOWEST AMPLITUDE.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FAVORS AN OMEGA PATTERN
SETTING UP, WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. IF THE RIDGE IS
UNOBSTRUCTED, WE CAN EXPECT MORE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WOULD ALSO LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 25 MPH. THAT ALL BEING SAID, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT A TROUGH WILL TRY AND DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT
WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THIS TROUGH CAN DIG DOWN, WE MAY NOT
BE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER, HIGHS IN
THE 90S, AND MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS. EVEN WITHOUT THE TROUGH
DIGGING IN, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE MAY NOT
REMAIN AMPLIFIED FOR LONG AND COULD SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN WEST OF BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING, WITH
ONLY A 10-15% CHANCE OF THEM IMPACTING EITHER KGLD OR KMCK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE PERIOD, BUT KMCK IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE A CALMER PERIOD OVERNIGHT. IF THE INVERSION
DOES NOT FORM AT KMCK, GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
COMMON, BUT THERE IS 75% CONFIDENCE THAT ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WILL OCCUR. ALSO, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT
BOTH SITES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. IF SURFACE WINDS ARE
REPORTING UNDER 5 KTS, THERE WOULD LIKELY BE LLWS AT 400 FEET
AGL FROM THE SOUTH AT 35-45 MPH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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