375
FXUS63 KGLD 151703
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1103 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN YUMA COUNTY,
COLORADO.
- GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND 100S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO HAVE
MORE OF A NORTHERLY MOTION TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
RESULTING IN A LOWER CHANCE FOR FRONT RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE
CONVECTION TO REACH THE AREA. ISOLATED CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY FIRE
NEAR THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH BUT QUICKLY MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME CAMS HAVE NOTHING IN THE AREA TODAY
WHICH IS VERY POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
FOR FRIDAY, ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100 AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING. THAT BEING SAID, AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED UPSTREAM OVER THE
WESTERN COAST. THIS SHOULD SEND A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER THE AREA,
WHILE ALSO HELPING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RECENTER DOWN CLOSER TO
THE AREA. WITH THIS, STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA. THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 40S, WHICH
WOULD LOWER INSTABILITY AND STORM CHANCES WITH THE CONTINUED WEAK
UPPER SUBSIDENCE. THAT BEING SAID, SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FOR ANY
STORM THAT COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE FAVORED AREA WOULD AGAIN BE
EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A
TROUGH UPSTREAM. THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND AFTERNOON/EVENING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE STORMS AS SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WHEN
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE AT IT LOWEST AMPLITUDE.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE FORECAST CURRENTLY FAVORS AN OMEGA PATTERN
SETTING UP, WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. IF THE RIDGE IS
UNOBSTRUCTED, WE CAN EXPECT MORE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WOULD ALSO LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 25 MPH. THAT ALL BEING SAID, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT A TROUGH WILL TRY AND DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT
WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THIS TROUGH CAN DIG DOWN, WE MAY NOT
BE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER, HIGHS IN
THE 90S, AND MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS. EVEN WITHOUT THE TROUGH
DIGGING IN, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE MAY NOT
REMAIN AMPLIFIED FOR LONG AND COULD SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH, VARYING BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE FOR STORMS BETWEEN 21-06Z, WITH THE CHANCES
BEING LOW DUE TO THE FORECAST CALLING FOR STORMS TO STAY WELL
WEST OF THE TERMINALS. THE OTHER CONDITION OF NOTE IS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40-45KTS AT A FEW
HUNDRED FEET.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page