649
FXUS63 KGLD 151945
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, FAVORING EASTERN
COLORADO.
- GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND 100S.
- LOW CHANCE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH A FEW HUNDREDS STILL LIKELY BE THE PEAK OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE CENTER OF THE LOWER
PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST. IF THE LOW
CENTER SUCCEEDS IN SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA, OUR STORM CHANCES FOR
TODAY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY A BIT LOWER IN THE
40S AND 50S, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, MAKES IT UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
EASTERN COLORADO MAY STILL HAVE A STORM OR TWO MOVE OVER, BUT THEY
LIKELY WOULDN'T DO ANYTHING. AT WORST,A GUST AROUND 60-70 MPH AS A
SHOWER/STORM DECAYS COULD OCCUR.
TONIGHT, A FEW CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVER FROM THE NEARBY STORMS, BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WITH THE OVERALL DRY
AIR. WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH FROM THE NEARBY LOW KEEPING THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP ONLY INTO THE
60S AND 70S. WINDS MAY BE A BIT MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST, HELPING TO
RECOVER SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SATURDAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S AND 100S. WINDS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS SHOULD SHIFT TO BE A BIT MORE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15
MPH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AN UPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AS SHORTWAVES. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
THE CENTER OF LOWER PRESSURE BACK OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS, WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT DIRECTIONS AND OR BECOME LIGHTER FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OR TWO SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE
LOW OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE UP WITH
THE BIT OF MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE PRIOR NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID,
THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL FAVORS MOSTLY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY AND KEEP MOST SHOWERS/STORMS SUB-
SEVERE. THE STRONGEST STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LARGE
HAIL IF IT RIDES THE BOUNDARY AND STAYS UP LONG ENOUGH. OTHERWISE,
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TOMORROW WOULD BE SOME SPORADIC WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60-70 MPH. BLOWING DUST COULD BE A CONCERN DIRECTLY NEAR
STORMS, BUT WOULD LIKELY MIX OUT WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES.
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER INTO THE NIGHT
WITH THE LOW REMAINING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. THEY SHOULDN'T BE
SEVERE SHORT OF A GUST OR TWO TO 60-70 MPH AS THEY DISSIPATE. A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES IS FORECAST OTHERWISE WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S AS THE UPPER RIDGE REAMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES. 100S ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
RIDGE AXIS BEING WEST OF THE AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL INTRUSION FROM
THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW CHANCE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN FORECAST WITH THE USUAL ACTIVITY OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MAYBE A FEW SHORTWAVES.
LATER IN THE WEEK, MORE UPPER TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS, GIVING US A CHANCE FOR A BIT COOLER WEATHER.
STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR NOW AS THE RACKS AND AMPLITUDE VARY,
BUT IF ONE MOVES MORE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S COULD OCCUR. STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW EACH DAY
UNLESS THE DEEPER TROUGH SCENARIO PANS OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH, VARYING BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE FOR STORMS BETWEEN 21-06Z, WITH THE CHANCES
BEING LOW DUE TO THE FORECAST CALLING FOR STORMS TO STAY WELL
WEST OF THE TERMINALS. THE OTHER CONDITION OF NOTE IS THAT THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40-45KTS AT A FEW
HUNDRED FEET.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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