239
FXUS63 KGLD 160527
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND 100S.
- LOW CHANCE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH A FEW HUNDREDS STILL LIKELY BE THE PEAK OF THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOWER PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND WEST. IF THE LOW CENTER SUCCEEDS IN SHIFTING WEST OF
THE AREA, OUR STORM CHANCES FOR TODAY WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY A BIT LOWER IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAKES IT
UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. EASTERN COLORADO
MAY STILL HAVE A STORM OR TWO MOVE OVER, BUT THEY LIKELY
WOULDN'T DO ANYTHING. AT WORST,A GUST AROUND 60-70 MPH AS A
SHOWER/STORM DECAYS COULD OCCUR.
TONIGHT, A FEW CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVER FROM THE NEARBY STORMS, BUT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WITH THE
OVERALL DRY AIR. WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH FROM THE NEARBY LOW
KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP ONLY INTO THE 60S AND 70S. WINDS MAY BE A BIT MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, HELPING TO RECOVER SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
SATURDAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S AND 100S. WINDS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD SHIFT TO BE A BIT MORE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 10-15 MPH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AN UPPER TROUGH
UPSTREAM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AS SHORTWAVES. THIS IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT THE CENTER OF LOWER PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
AREA. WITH THIS, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT DIRECTIONS AND OR BECOME
LIGHTER FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OR
TWO SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FIRE UP WITH THE BIT OF MOISTURE
RECOVERY FROM THE PRIOR NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THE CURRENT
FORECAST STILL FAVORS MOSTLY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH
SHOULD HELP LIMIT INSTABILITY AND KEEP MOST SHOWERS/STORMS SUB-
SEVERE. THE STRONGEST STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME
LARGE HAIL IF IT RIDES THE BOUNDARY AND STAYS UP LONG ENOUGH.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TOMORROW WOULD BE SOME SPORADIC
WIND GUSTS AROUND 60-70 MPH. BLOWING DUST COULD BE A CONCERN
DIRECTLY NEAR STORMS, BUT WOULD LIKELY MIX OUT WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES.
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER INTO THE
NIGHT WITH THE LOW REMAINING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. THEY
SHOULDN'T BE SEVERE SHORT OF A GUST OR TWO TO 60-70 MPH AS THEY
DISSIPATE. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES IS FORECAST OTHERWISE
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S AS THE UPPER RIDGE REAMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES. 100S ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO
THE RIDGE AXIS BEING WEST OF THE AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL
INTRUSION FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW
CHANCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN FORECAST WITH THE
USUAL ACTIVITY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO AND MAYBE A
FEW SHORTWAVES.
LATER IN THE WEEK, MORE UPPER TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS, GIVING US A CHANCE FOR A BIT COOLER
WEATHER. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR NOW AS THE RACKS AND
AMPLITUDE VARY, BUT IF ONE MOVES MORE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
THEN HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S COULD OCCUR. STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW EACH DAY UNLESS THE DEEPER TROUGH SCENARIO PANS OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2025
A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING (00-06Z SUNDAY)..
SIMILAR TO THIS PAST EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION
WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. ~45 KNOT SSW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AT ~1,000 FT AGL (PER KGLD VELOCITY DATA AT 05Z THIS
EVENING) WILL FOSTER LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT. LLWS WILL
ABATE BY, OR AROUND, SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. S WINDS AT 10-15
KNOTS (OVERNIGHT) WILL VEER TO THE SSW-SW AND INCREASE TO 15-25
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON (~18Z SAT) AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...VINCENT
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