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FXUS63 KGLD 161918
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
118 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND 100S.
- LOW CHANCE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2025
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE 90S WITH A FEW 100S
POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHERE THE MORNING
CLOUD COVER DID NOT MOVE OVER. SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRIES TO RECENTER OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRE UP WEST OF THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY IN COUNTIES ALONG THE
COLORADO BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/50S IN THE FORMATION AREA WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LITTLE IMPROVEMENT. WITH THIS, INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AND KEEP THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS LOW. THE
MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE WIND GUSTS IN THE 60 TO 70 MPH RANGE WITH
DECAYING STORMS. BLOWING DUST COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN, THOUGH
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS CURRENTLY HAS DUST CHANCES
ON THE LOW SIDE. IF A STORM SURVIVED LONG ENOUGH, LARGE HAIL
WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
THE CENTER OF THE LOW REMAINING OVER THE AREA. IF THERE ARE
SHOWERS AND STORMS, BE ALERT FOR POTENTIAL HEAT BURSTS.
OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AGAIN.
SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY WITH ALMOST NO
CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF WITH THE TROUGHING UPSTREAM OVER
THE ROCKIES. WITH THIS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S WITH MAYBE A FEW 100S OUT EAST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THAT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE BROADER
AS THE DAY GOES ON, LEADING TO GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME NORTHERLY FROM FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ALSO FORECAST TO PUSH THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE
EAST. SO AS STORMS TRY TO FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE OF THE
AREA TO HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE HAZARDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN THE SAME, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH AS
STORMS DECAY BEING THE MAIN CONCERN (ALONG WITH BLOWING DUST).
THE ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IS THAT STORMS FORMING EAST OF
HIGHWAY 25 IS FORECAST TO HAVE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, AND MAYBE HAIL AROUND 2 INCHES IF A
REALLY STRONG STORM DEVELOPS. SHEAR IS THE MAIN INHIBITOR AT
THIS POINT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AROUND 25 KTS, WHICH WOULD
FAVOR MORE PULSE STORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO PRIOR NIGHTS, WITH STORMS AND CLOUDS
CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WOULD DROP INTO THE
60S AND 70S AGAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2025
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THE CENTER FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IT BEING AMPLIFIED UP INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA, WE ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH WEAK FLOW. WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW GENERALLY MEANS CHANCES FOR STORMS, THE HIGH
AMPLIFICATION MAY KEEP THE SHORTWAVES AND BETTER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME POP UPS FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO, BUT THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE AN
ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR STORMS AT THIS TIME. THE WEAK FLOW SHOULD ALSO
GIVE US RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, WITH WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
15 MPH OR LESS WITH FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO BE TO THE WEST, AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND
70S, WE MAY BE ABLE TO ESCAPE THE WORST OF THE HEAT WITH HIGHS JUST
IN THE 90S. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100-105 FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AND
GET PUSHED EAST BY A TROUGH. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF VARIANCE ON HOW
MUCH OF THE PLAINS IS INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH, BUT THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR A MORE WESTERN EXTENT ACROSS MOST OF THE THE PLAINS AND US.
IF THIS HOLDS, A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEPT THROUGH AND GIVE A MORE
ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR STORMS. IT COULD ALSO GIVE US A DAY OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS IN EITHER THE 70S OR 80S.
OTHERWISE, NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND LOW CHANCES FOR
STORMS WOULD CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES.
WINDS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW AS BEEN BROADER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. WITH
THIS, SURFACE WINDS COULD BE AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS, BEFORE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS. THERE REMAINS CHANCES
FOR STORMS BETWEEN 21-06Z, BUT CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 20%. IF
STORMS FORM, THEY WOULD LIKELY BE PULSE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 35-50 KTS POSSIBLE. TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE, BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE LOWER LEVEL LOW MORE OVER THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS IF FLYING TONIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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