233
FXUS63 KGLD 171754
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1154 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WE MAY SEE A COOL DOWN NEXT
WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2025
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS SHOWED GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA UNDERNEATH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN A BIT
ELEVATED, MODEL GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR COLUMN. MID-LEVEL WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY LOOSELY SUPPORTS THIS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES NOTED
OVER THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID, THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO FORM, ESPECIALLY WITH CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
IN THE AREA. THE MOST PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOT FORECAST TO SHIFT MUCH, THIS SHOULD
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE, BUT HAVE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 8.5 C/KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 20-30
KTS. WITH THIS, PULSE STORMS SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
GIVEN THE OVERALL LOW SUPPORT FOR HAIL, WEAK FLOW, AND DCAPE AROUND
1400 J/KG OR LESS, SEVERE WEATHER SEEM UNLIKELY WITH HAIL UP TO .75
INCHES AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH MORE LIKELY. CAN'T RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS FORM ALONG A SECOND POTENTIAL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (JUST EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83). THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE MORE FROM A SPEED
DIFFERENCE WITH WINDS LOWERING FROM AROUND 15-20 MPH TO 5-10 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH. IF STORMS FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE WORSE (LESS THAN 20 KTS) AND LIKELY ONLY ALLOW FOR
PULSE STORMS. MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO 3000 J/KG OR A BIT
HIGHER WHICH COULD ALLOW A STORM TO PRODUCE HAIL TO AROUND AN INCH,
BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LESS THAN 8 C/KM WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP
MOST HAIL BELOW AN INCH.
THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS
WEAKEN AND ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID, ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY BE ABLE TO SPARK
STORMS AS WE LIKELY WOULDN'T LOSE ANY OF OUR ELEVATED INSTABILITY
UNLESS A STORMS REMAINS OVER AN AREA. THOSE IN THE ABSENCE OF STORMS
SHOULD SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. WHERE STORMS
GO, THERE COULD BE GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S OR 70S.
FOR MONDAY, THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY CHANGE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TRY AND RESET UP OVER THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN
AMPLIFYING. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES AND
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. FOR THE AREA, THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO LITTLE CHANGE EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S UNDERNEATH SUNNY
SKIES AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY, STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO FIRE UP IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FORECAST
TO FORM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT STORMS COULD FIRE UP IN NORTHWEST KANSAS IF THE CENTER OF THE
LOW FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRAPES ANOTHER CONVERGENCE ZONE ON
THE NORTH SIDE. REGARDLESS OF WHERE STORMS FORM, THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH MUCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 C/KM. WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-30 KTS AGAIN, BUT COULD BE CLOSER TO 30
KTS WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES EARLY BEFORE
THEY CLUSTER. WITH THIS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL
INITIALLY, FOLLOWED BY WIND GUSTS AROUND 50-65 MPH. THE LOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIFFUSE OUT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA GOING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, BUT STORMS COULD CONTINUE WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA
FROM PRIOR STORMS. IN ANY CASE, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LOWER
THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR HIGHER SURFACE
PRESSURE TO SET IN AND SOME UPPER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. ONCE
THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2025
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THE CENTER FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IT BEING AMPLIFIED UP INTO
SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA, WE ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY DRY WITH
WEAK FLOW. WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW GENERALLY MEANS CHANCES FOR
STORMS, THE HIGH AMPLIFICATION MAY KEEP THE SHORTWAVES AND
BETTER MID- LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE AREA. WE COULD STILL SEE
SOME POP UPS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO, BUT
THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR STORMS AT THIS
TIME. THE WEAK FLOW SHOULD ALSO GIVE US RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS,
WITH WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 15 MPH OR LESS WITH FEW
GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO THE WEST,
AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S, WE MAY BE ABLE TO
ESCAPE THE WORST OF THE HEAT WITH HIGHS JUST IN THE 90S. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-105 FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN AND GET PUSHED EAST BY A TROUGH. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF
VARIANCE ON HOW MUCH OF THE PLAINS IS INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH,
BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE WESTERN EXTENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE THE PLAINS AND US. IF THIS HOLDS, A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEPT
THROUGH AND GIVE A MORE ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR STORMS. IT COULD
ALSO GIVE US A DAY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS IN
EITHER THE 70S OR 80S. OTHERWISE, NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S AND LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO START CLEAR, BUT HAVE SOME CLOUDS
MOVE IN AS ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH TERMINALS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW 20% AT EITHER. LOOK FOR AMENDMENTS AND
FOR STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINALS. THE LOW CHANCES
ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH 06Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. GLD WINDS SHOULD VARY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW CENTER OVER THE TERMINAL,
WHILE BOTH SITES COULD VARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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