438
FXUS63 KGLD 180531
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WE MAY SEE A COOL DOWN NEXT
WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2025
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS SHOWED GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA UNDERNEATH BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED, MODEL GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR
COLUMN. MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOSELY SUPPORTS THIS WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES NOTED OVER THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID, THERE
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO FORM, ESPECIALLY
WITH CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. THE MOST PRONOUNCED
BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
MOVING INTO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOT
FORECAST TO SHIFT MUCH, THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS
DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
HAVE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE, BUT HAVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BELOW 8.5 C/KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS. WITH
THIS, PULSE STORMS SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. GIVEN THE
OVERALL LOW SUPPORT FOR HAIL, WEAK FLOW, AND DCAPE AROUND 1400
J/KG OR LESS, SEVERE WEATHER SEEM UNLIKELY WITH HAIL UP TO .75
INCHES AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH MORE LIKELY. CAN'T RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS FORM ALONG A SECOND
POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA (JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 83). THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE MORE
FROM A SPEED DIFFERENCE WITH WINDS LOWERING FROM AROUND 15-20
MPH TO 5-10 MPH FROM THE SOUTH. IF STORMS FIRE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WORSE (LESS THAN 20 KTS)
AND LIKELY ONLY ALLOW FOR PULSE STORMS. MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO 3000 J/KG OR A BIT HIGHER WHICH COULD ALLOW A STORM
TO PRODUCE HAIL TO AROUND AN INCH, BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LESS THAN 8 C/KM WILL PROBABLY HELP KEEP MOST HAIL BELOW AN
INCH.
THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS
WEAKEN AND ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THAT BEING SAID, ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY BE ABLE TO
SPARK STORMS AS WE LIKELY WOULDN'T LOSE ANY OF OUR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY UNLESS A STORMS REMAINS OVER AN AREA. THOSE IN THE
ABSENCE OF STORMS SHOULD SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. WHERE STORMS GO, THERE COULD BE GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S OR 70S.
FOR MONDAY, THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY CHANGE AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TRY AND RESET UP OVER THE ROCKIES AND
BEGIN AMPLIFYING. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVES AND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. FOR THE AREA, THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD
TO LITTLE CHANGE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 90S UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY, STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO FIRE UP IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE
IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORMS COULD FIRE UP IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
IF THE CENTER OF THE LOW FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRAPES
ANOTHER CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE. REGARDLESS OF WHERE
STORMS FORM, THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 C/KM. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 20-30 KTS AGAIN, BUT COULD BE CLOSER TO 30 KTS WHICH MAY
ALLOW SOME STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES EARLY BEFORE THEY
CLUSTER. WITH THIS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL
INITIALLY, FOLLOWED BY WIND GUSTS AROUND 50-65 MPH. THE LOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIFFUSE OUT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA GOING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, BUT STORMS COULD CONTINUE WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA FROM PRIOR STORMS. IN ANY CASE, THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
THE FORECAST CALLING FOR HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE TO SET IN AND
SOME UPPER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE
AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2025
TUE-FRI CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY HOT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EACH DAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS THE
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AIR COLUMN IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. THERE ARE
STILL SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS EACH DAY, BUT GENERALLY AROUND OR
BELOW 15% AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO KEEP MOST OF
THE SHORTWAVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE CHANCES FOR STORMS STEM
FROM US KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S, WITH NO SIGNS OF A
DRIER AIR MASS AT THIS TIME.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION AROUND FRI/SAT.
THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF VARIABILITY IN HOW MUCH IT EXTENDS INTO
THE PLAINS, BUT IN ALMOST ALL SCENARIOS IT SHOULD PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE AREA
WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, LIKELY FRIDAY
BASED ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, WE COULD
HAVE A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
MAYBE SOME 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2025
GLD: THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (~21Z MON TO ~03Z TUE).
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
AFFECTING THE GOODLAND TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.. SHIFTING TO THE ESE AT 8-13 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
MCK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (~21Z MON TO ~03Z TUE).
WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
AFFECTING THE MCCOOK TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE GREATER THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.. SHIFTING TO THE ESE OR SE AT 8-13
KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...VINCENT
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