742
FXUS63 KGLD 190525
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. WE MAY SEE A COOL DOWN NEXT
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 429 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2025
TWO AREAS OF STORM ACTIVITY ARE ONGOING; ONE AREA OF STORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN CO AND THE OTHER IS A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS NW KS. SO FAR HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 70 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR DUST STORM CONDITIONS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH.
OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW A CONTINUED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG INTERSTATE 76. THIS BAND HAS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS AROUND HIGHWAY 34. THIS SETUP MIGHT CHANGE A FEW THINGS
FOR LATER TODAY.
FOR NOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S
WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 80S AS OF 10AM MT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE DAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE BUILDS UP NEAR THE FRONT RANGE, WITH MOISTURE
FLOWING IN FROM THE EAST. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THIS IS
FORECAST TO STILL ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL WRENCH IN
THE SETUP IS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH, ALONG WITH ANY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOWS PRODUCED BY
THESE MORNING STORMS. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA, THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD FIRE UP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON (AROUND
1PM MT / 2PM CT) ON THAT BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WOULD INITIALLY
HAVE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST THEY
FORM WHERE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR GREATER INSTABILITY. THE MAIN
HINDRANCES ARE THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 8 C/KM AND EFFECT SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS. BOTH CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, SO OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. OTHERWISE, IF THE LINE
DOES NOT FIRE UP, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH MAYBE A ROGUE POP UP STORM.
THE EVENING HOURS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP
IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT SHOULD CLUSTER FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25-35 KTS AND MESSY HODOGRAPHS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR AN INITIAL LARGE HAIL THREAT, FOLLOWED BY STRONG
WIND GUSTS ONCE STORMS CLUSTER. IF THE STORMS DID FIRE UP ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK WOULD
LIKELY BE LOWER WITH MORE STABLE AIR AND COMPETING OUTFLOWS,
HINDERING HOW MUCH THE CLUSTERS OUTFLOWS COULD HELP SUSTAIN
THEIR DEVELOPMENT. THE MORE MOIST PROFILE COULD ALSO LOWER THE
WIND THREAT WITH LESS DCAPE. OTHERWISE, IF THE EARLIER STORMS DO
NOT FORM, THE CLUSTERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST, STILL FAVORING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. AS
THEY MOVE ACROSS, SPORADIC WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH REMAIN
FORECAST. THESE STRONG GUSTS AND OUTFLOWS COULD ALSO KICK UP
BLOWING DUST AS RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THE AREA HAS
DRY TOPSOIL. IF A FEW STORMS FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER,
THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THESE COULD PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL
CAPPING STABILITY, WHICH WOULD HELP CONCENTRATE DUST IF
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOWS CAN BEGIN TO PICK UP DUST.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WOULD SEE THE STORM CLUSTER SLOWLY FINISH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TO THE EAST IF IT DID FORM. THERE COULD
BE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IF ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LINGER IN THE AREA. FOR AREAS THAT CLEAR OF STORMS,
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.
TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER THE ROCKIES AND AMPLIFY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
90S WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES, THOUGH WE SHOULD AVOID THE UPPER
90S WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE
IN PLACE, THE FLOW THROUGH THE AIR COLUMN IS FORECAST TO BE ON
THE WEAKER SIDE, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS BELOW 15 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH. WE ARE FORECAST TO RETAIN DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S WHICH WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 15% WITH THE UPPER SUBSIDENCE, THE LOWER PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING MORE BROAD AND DIFFUSE, AND WITH SHORTWAVES LIKELY
STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVER
THE AREA. WITH THIS, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR
DEWPOINT IN THE 50S AND 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF FOG
THAT DEVELOP WITH THE SATURATED LOWER LEVEL AIR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2025
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WARM AND FAIRLY DRY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
90S WITH GENERALLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE UPPER
SUBSIDENCE. WITH THIS, CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARE VERY LOW AS
MOST OF THE SHORTWAVES SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA, SHORT OF
MAYBE ON THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE RIDGE CAN REMAIN
AMPLIFIED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 20 MPH WITH
WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE AIR COLUMN DUE TO THE RIDGE.
THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BRING A PATTERN CHANGE AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST PROGRESSION WOULD STILL ALLOW FRIDAY TO BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY. THERE LOOKS TO ONLY BE A 10% CHANCE THAT THE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT FRIDAY WOULD BE COOLER. A
QUICKER PROGRESSION WOULD ALSO HINDER STORMS CHANCES FOR FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE FRONT/LOW THAT IS TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND HELP SPARK SOME STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR SEVERE STORMS TO FORM WITH THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. AFTER THE FRONT/LOW MOVE THROUGH, GENERALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ARE FORECAST. STORM
CHANCES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LONG AS THE TROUGH
DOESN'T PUSH THROUGH TOO FAR SOUTH AND BRING THE CENTER OF
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2025
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS (AND
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS) AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD
(LATE THIS EVENING AND VERY EARLY TUE MORNING, OR ~05-08Z TUE)..
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL
AT BOTH TERMINALS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...VINCENT
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