101
FXUS63 KGLD 192000
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A 15-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. AN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH.
- WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK; RAIN CHANCES ALSO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS IS
KEEPING THE AREA WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS ARE REACHING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TODAY.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA OF GREATEST FOCUS
IS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW
(10-20%). ONLY A HANDFUL OF CAMS DEPICT ISOLATED COVERAGE THROUGH
THE EVENING, THUS SUPPORTING THE LOWER CONFIDENCE. AN
ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LIFT THAT MAY TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT IS
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR NEW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
TO EAST THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR. HOWEVER, A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE. THIS IS A RESULT OF MODEST
SURFACE- BASED CAPE (1500-2500 J/KG) CLIPPING THE EASTERN
COUNTIES, IN ADDITION TO SUFFICIENT DCAPE (~1500 J/KG) AND MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (~7.5 C/KM). GIVEN THIS PRESENCE OF AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND MODEST PWATS (1.2-1.4 INCH), A WET DOWNBURST
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE,
MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25 INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED OVER THE REGION INTO MID TO LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING A
BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FURTHERMORE, RAIN CHANCES ARE
LIMITED THROUGH THURSDAY, REMAINING LESS THAN 10%. WINDS REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AROUND 20 MPH OR LESS IN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: AS WE PROGRESS INTO LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND,
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVERTAKEN BY A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SETUP A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL FEATURE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY,
THOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS LESS FAVORED AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS IS SIMPLY GLEANED FROM GUIDANCE DEPICTING
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVERLAPPING IN THE AREA. MORE
DETAILS WILL COME IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS WE PIN DOWN THE EXACT
TIMING AND ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY, AND UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK: A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES. A
POTENTIAL ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT WOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES WOULD
BE IF THE TROUGH IS ABLE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS PARTICULAR ARTIFACT OF
THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF EFI DEPICTS THE ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE
SIGNAL OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
PROGGED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE AUGUST. THIS CORRELATES TO HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS TO LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCES (10-15%) FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEPICT IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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