339
FXUS63 KGLD 200439
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK; RAIN CHANCES ALSO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS IS
KEEPING THE AREA WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS ARE REACHING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TODAY.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA OF GREATEST FOCUS
IS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW
(10-20%). ONLY A HANDFUL OF CAMS DEPICT ISOLATED COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING, THUS SUPPORTING THE LOWER CONFIDENCE. AN
ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LIFT THAT MAY TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT IS
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR NEW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
TO EAST THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE ABSENCE OF SHEAR. HOWEVER, A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE. THIS IS A RESULT OF MODEST
SURFACE- BASED CAPE (1500-2500 J/KG) CLIPPING THE EASTERN
COUNTIES, IN ADDITION TO SUFFICIENT DCAPE (~1500 J/KG) AND MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (~7.5 C/KM). GIVEN THIS PRESENCE OF AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND MODEST PWATS (1.2-1.4 INCH), A WET DOWNBURST
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE,
MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25 INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED OVER THE REGION INTO MID TO LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING A
BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FURTHERMORE, RAIN CHANCES
ARE LIMITED THROUGH THURSDAY, REMAINING LESS THAN 10%. WINDS
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AROUND 20 MPH OR
LESS IN THE WEAK FLOW REGIME.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: AS WE PROGRESS INTO LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND,
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVERTAKEN BY A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SETUP A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL FEATURE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY,
THOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS LESS FAVORED AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS IS SIMPLY GLEANED FROM GUIDANCE DEPICTING
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVERLAPPING IN THE AREA. MORE
DETAILS WILL COME IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS WE PIN DOWN THE EXACT
TIMING AND ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY, AND UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK: A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
A POTENTIAL ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT WOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE IF THE TROUGH IS ABLE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE
AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS PARTICULAR ARTIFACT
OF THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF EFI DEPICTS THE ANOMALOUS
TEMPERATURE SIGNAL OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS CORRELATES TO HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER, IF ANY, WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS (~8,000 TO 10,000 FT AGL)
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (~20Z WED TO ~01Z THU). WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE
SE AND MODESTLY INCREASING TO 8-13 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
(GLD) TO LATE AFTERNOON (MCK).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...VINCENT
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