096
FXUS63 KGLD 201055
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
455 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 10-14% CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 THIS
AFTERNOON; WIND GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
- WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK; RAIN CHANCES ALSO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ROCKIES CURRENTLY AS THE
CWA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. A SURFACE HIGH IS
IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE VERSUS THE WEST WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS
STARTING TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH IS TURNING WINDS MORE
TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS LONG WINDS CAN REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
THE EAST A FEW HOURS OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 STARTING AROUND 6AM CT AND LASTING
THROUGH 9AM CT. WILL INITIALLY INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTON, GRAHAM, SHERIDAN AND DECATUR
COUNTIES BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME, DENSE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN DUE TO
LOWER MIXING RATIO DIFFERENCES FROM THE SURFACE TO THE 1KM
LEVEL.
A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY IS FORECAST TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH AS MENTIONED
ABOVE MOVES INTO YUMA, DUNDY, KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE (KS) LEADING
WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY GUSTS AROUND
20 MPH WHEREAS WINDS FURTHER TO THE EAST WILL RANGE FROM 5-10 MPH
WITH THE LOWEST ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IF A SURFACE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY CAN FORM WHICH AT THIS TIME IS FAVORED ALONG
AND EAST OF HITCHCOCK TO LOGAN COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE AROUND 10-14% CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING DUE TO NEBULOUS
FORCING AND NOT ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS BOUNDARY FORMING IN THE
FIRST PLACE. SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP WIND GUSTS AROUND 50-55 MPH
WOULD BE PRIMARY HAZARD. ANY STORMS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND AROUND 8PM CT. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA RESULTING IN MORE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED "WARMER"
TEMPERATURES SO HAVE NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2025
THURSDAY: THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE REGION INTO MID TO LATE WEEK, SUPPORTING A BIT HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FURTHERMORE, RAIN CHANCES ARE LIMITED
THROUGH THURSDAY, REMAINING LESS THAN 10%. WINDS REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AROUND 20 MPH OR LESS IN THE
WEAK FLOW REGIME.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: AS WE PROGRESS INTO LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND,
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVERTAKEN BY A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SETUP A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL FEATURE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY,
THOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS LESS FAVORED AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS IS SIMPLY GLEANED FROM GUIDANCE DEPICTING
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVERLAPPING IN THE AREA. MORE
DETAILS WILL COME IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS WE PIN DOWN THE EXACT
TIMING AND ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY, AND UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK: A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
A POTENTIAL ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT WOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE IF THE TROUGH IS ABLE TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE
AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THIS PARTICULAR ARTIFACT
OF THE FORECAST. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. ECMWF EFI DEPICTS THE ANOMALOUS
TEMPERATURE SIGNAL OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS CORRELATES TO HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 451 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD FOR EACH
TERMINAL. STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP FOR MCK WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 6SM
POSSIBLE, LESS THAN 5% CHANCE BRIEFLY LOWER INTO MVFR TERRITORY.
ONLY REASON I DIDN'T INCLUDE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TEMPO WAS
DUE TO A DECLINING SIGNAL. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SE COMPONENT BY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE SW, ESPECIALLY FOR GLD THIS
EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...TRIGG
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