839
FXUS63 KGLD 091727
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FIRE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN IN THE
EVENING, MAINLY FAVORING THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. DAILY STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2025
EARLY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, KEEPING OUR NEAR SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WITH THIS, MOST OF THE AREA HAS SEEN CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR EASTERN COLORADO (CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER
STORMS/SHOWERS) AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA (LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER FROM WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS LONG AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON HITCHCOCK, RED WILLOW, DECATUR, AND
NORTON COUNTIES AS THESE COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP.
FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE.
WITH THE UPPER 500MB RIDGE FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT THE AXIS
MORE INTO THE AREA, WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND
LOW 90S AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW AND WEAK FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR
COLUMN. HOWEVER, THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTER ABOUT 2PM MT/3PM CT, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND STORM CHANCES AS STORMS SHOULD FIRE UP IN EASTERN
COLORADO ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CONVERGENCE ZONES ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SURFACE AND 850MB LOW. FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA, THE
FAVORED AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 AND
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36. THE EARLIEST STORMS COULD DEVELOP IS
12PM MT, BUT LIKELY BETWEEN 2-4PM MT. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTING THAT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO MOST OF THE FAVORED
AREA AT THE SURFACE FROM THE NORTHWEST, LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE
40S AND MAYBE EVEN THE 30S. IF THIS IS THE CASE, STORMS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO INITIALLY GET GOING WITH ONLY SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE
700-500MB LAYER. THIS COULD LEAD TO CLUSTERING OR FAILED ANVIL
ATTEMPTS THAT WOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL. STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY INITIALLY TO
MOVE ROUGHLY EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY AND ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN. A BIGGER PROBLEM IS IF WE GET EARLIER
MOISTURE RETURNS AND/OR A STORM CAN STAY ISOLATED AND TOGETHER. THE
INITIAL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE LACKING IN CAPE (AROUND OR
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG) DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND LACKING IN SHEAR (AROUND
OR LESS THAN 30 KTS) WHICH SHOULD HAVE STORMS FALL APART SHORTLY
AFTER FORMING. HOWEVER, IF WE HAVE EARLIER/GREATER MOISTURE RETURN,
CAPE WOULD THEN BEGIN TO EXCEED 2000-3000 J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND OR ABOVE 9 C/KM WHICH WOULD
GREATLY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT WOULD
FURTHER BE ENHANCED AS STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE
LOWS, INTO STRONGER FLOW AND BETTER SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IF A SUPERCELL GETS GOING, IT WOULD BE
PRETTY REASONABLE TO EXPECT 2+ INCH HAIL. SOME ANALOGS SUGGESTS
HAIL COULD REACH 3 TO 4 INCHES. THAT ALL BEING SAID, THIS
CURRENTLY REMAINS THE LOW CHANCE SCENARIO DUE TO THE LIKELY DRY
AIR INTRUSION AND/OR CLUSTERING OF STORMS INITIALLY THAT CAUSE
THE UPDRAFTS TO COMPETE WITH ONE ANOTHER.
BUT WE'RE NOT DONE YET. A 500MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM THE TROUGH UPSTREAM. AS IT DOES SO,
ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FIRE JUST WEST OF THE AREA IN EITHER A LINE
OR BROKEN CLUSTER AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA, ADDED BY THE MOISTURE
THAT WAS ADDED. FOR THOSE WHO SAW PRIOR STORMS, MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD HAVE BEEN USED, LEAVING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SEVERE WIND GUSTS DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW, OR HAIL FROM ELEVATED STORMS.
FOR THOSE WHO DIDN'T SEE EARLIER STORMS, THERE IS THE CONCERN FOR
LARGE HAIL DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD GUST OUT OR MOVE THROUGH AIR THAT BECOMES
TOO STABLE, CAUSING THEM TO GUST OUT AND FALL APART AS THEY MOVE
EAST. BUT IF THEY DON'T FALL APART OR THE OUTFLOWS KICK UP MORE
STORMS, MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WOULD BE AROUND 2000-4000
J/KG OF MUCAPE, MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED HAIL STORMS. IF AN
ELEVATED SUPERCELL DEVELOP, 2+ INCH HAIL WOULD BECOME LIKELY
AGAIN.
SO AS A QUICK RECAP, WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO BEGIN
THE DAY WITH SOME EARLY FOG NEAR NEBRASKA. A ROUND OF STORMS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH A SECONDARY ROUND MOVING IN FROM WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST ENVIRONMENT FAVORS CLUSTERS THAT COULD
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY BOTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD FORM AND PRODUCE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2+
INCHES. THERE ALSO IS THE CHANCE FOR A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO
OF UP TO 70 MPH FROM CLUSTER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER AND
STORMS CAN LINGER IN THE AREA. FOR THOSE WHO CLEAR, GENERALLY
FAVORING EASTERN COLORADO, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE REST OF THE AREA IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE
TEMPERATURES LINGER IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2025
A 500 MB HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTING ITS AXIS TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS WITH A SLOW MOVING 500 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL DOMINATE THE LONG-TERM. IN THE LOWER-LEVELS AN 850 MB LEVEL, A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS AS WEAK LOWS EJECT OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY LLJ TO FUNNEL MID AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES. DUE TO THE HEAT, MOISTURE,
AND WEAK COLD FRONTS, THERE WILL BE A NEARLY DAILY 20-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IF A STRONGER LOW AND COLD
FRONT CAN EJECT OFF THE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, ALL THE INGREDIENTS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE NBM IS STARTING TO COME
AROUND WITH POPS FOR THE WORKWEEK, BUT STILL DOES NOT ACCURATELY
REFLECT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WELL. THIS MEANS THE POPS SHOWN
IN THE LOCAL FORECASTS ON OUR WEB PAGE ARE LOWER THAN WHAT
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS. OVERALL, FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN: DAILY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS FORMING IS 20-30%; AT
LEAST ONE DAY (WED-FRI) SEEING SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS IS 65-75%;
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING AT LEAST ONE DAY WEDNESDAY-
FRIDAY IS 10-15%. FRIDAY IS SLOWING BECOMING THE FAVORED DAY FOR THE
COLUMN TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH A FEW PLACES SEEING MID 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP US FAIRLY WARM.
OVER NEXT WEEKEND, THE NORTHWESTERN LOW LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER POPS. THERE'S A LOT OF UNCERTAINLY ABOUT SPECIFIC IMPACTS, BUT
IT LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2025
NOW THAT THE FOG AND STRATUS HAS CLEAR FROM KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT WE ARE
EXPECTING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIMING IN THE TAFS ARE THE
BEST TIMING FORECAST WE CAN GIVE DUE TO HOW MESSY THIS EVENT
LOOKS, BUT KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS AS TIMING
IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
FOLLOWING THE STORMS TOMORROW MORNING, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE
OF SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CEILINGS AT KGLD, AND VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS AT KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA
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