758
FXUS63 KGLD 100939
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
339 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-
LATE WEEK.. WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS LARGELY, OR
ENTIRELY, CONFINED WEST OF THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY SEVERE,
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
THROUGH SUNRISE: STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXITING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/
(PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO THE DODGE CITY CWA AT 0730 UTC) WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING (08-10 UTC).
TODAY-THURSDAY: W-WSW FLOW ATOP THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BACK
TO THE SW-SSW IN THIS PERIOD.. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A HIGHLY
MODIFIED/OVERTURNED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING.. IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING MCS. WHILE
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS APT TO RECOVER (TO SOME EXTENT,
AT LEAST) BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.. STRENGTHENING
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL LIKELY
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING
AREA. WHILE ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
EMANATING FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND/OR PORTIONS OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE COULD POTENTIALLY APPROACH YUMA COUNTY, CO AN HOUR
OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNSET (~00-04 UTC), SUCH CONVECTION
(IF PRESENT) WOULD ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE/SUPPRESSED
ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERN EXTENT BENEATH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE,
AND.. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO STEERING FLOW (AS
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SW-SSW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE) MAY TEND TO SHEPHERD UPSTREAM CONVECTION
(EMANATING FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE) TOWARD THE NE-NNE (E.G.
ALONG/NORTH OF I-76). CURRENT AND RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE (E.G. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS VIA 06Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST) APPEAR TO
SUPPORT THIS LINE OF REASONING. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER-MID 90S BY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A 500 MB HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTING ITS AXIS TO THE EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WITH A SLOW MOVING 500 MB LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG-TERM.
IN THE LOWER-LEVELS AN 850 MB LEVEL, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE MID AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS AS WEAK
LOWS EJECT OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
LLJ TO FUNNEL MID AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA AS WELL
AS WARMER TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND SEND STRONGER COLD
FRONTS INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING (FRIDAY VS SATURDAY) FOR THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL QUESTION, BUT INCREASES POPS TO ABOUT
40-50% ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE LLJ HAVING BEEN PUSHING
WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS GRADUALLY INCREASING, TO AROUND
10-15%.
SUNDAY, THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MILD
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN, EXTENDING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, ABOUT 24 HOURS AFTER THAT RIDGE MOVES IN, WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER LOW MOVING IN OVER THE WEST COAST AND OVERRUN THE RIDGE,
LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START OFF NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WE EXPECT
TO SEE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE 60S, POTENTIALLY NEAR 70
FOR THE EASTERN CWA. POST FRONT, LOW 50S TO LOW 60S ARE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL (12-18 KFT AGL) CEILINGS /CIRRUS/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING MCS WILL ABATE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SSE-SE AT 5-10 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING.. INCREASING TO 13-18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
MCK: ASIDE FROM REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH FOG A
FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE THIS MORNING.. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL (12-18 KFT AGL) CEILINGS /CIRRUS/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING MCS WILL ABATE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SSE-SE AT 5-10 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING.. INCREASING TO 13-18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...VINCENT
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