256
FXUS63 KGLD 102330
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THURSDAY MORNING, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
ACROSS THE AREA.
- THURSDAY EVENING, SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO SEE A COOL DOWN WITH 80S EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
TODAY, WE FIND OURSELVES UNDER THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS, WHICH WILL
HELP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. STARTING
AROUND 0Z, THE REMNANTS OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY (15-20%) PUSH
INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. IF IT DOES, WE CAN EXPECT SOME DECAYING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO YUMA COUNTY, MAYBE MAKING IT TO THE
TRI-STATE BORDER. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO
1.25 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AND WINDS OF 45-60 MPH AS
THEY ARE DECAYING. MOTION OF THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND AS LAST AS 7Z.
FOLLOWING THE STORMS OVERNIGHT, DEPENDING ON WHAT THE SURFACE WINDS
DO, WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD, DENSE FOG. IF WINDS ARE COMING FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST, WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG. IF WE GET CALM WINDS,
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME SOME, BUT DENSE FOG WILL BE SCATTERED
AND NOT WIDESPREAD. IF WE GET SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WE WILL
LIKELY NOT HAVE ANY FOG, BUT COULD HAVE STRATUS FORMING. THE FOG
WOULD LIKELY START FORMING BETWEEN 7-9Z AND LINGER UNTIL 15-18Z
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SCOOTING OFF TO THE EAST, GIVING US
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, HELPING TEMPERATURES
WARM RAPIDLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. AROUND 21-03Z, BOTH THE 500 MB
LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS (THAT'S BEEN SITTING UP THERE FOR
DAYS), AND THE 850 MB LOW EJECTING OFF THE ROCKIES, WILL START
IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. THIS WILL GIVE US A 20-30% CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE THE FORCING FOR THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA, PREVENTING CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. IF STORMS DO
FIRE, THEY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING'S THREATS AND END BY 7Z
AND BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE THE FORCING
MAKES ITS WAY INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS, IN WHICH CASE WE WOULD GET
THE BULK OF THE STORMS. HAZARDS WOULD GENERALLY REMAIN THE SAME, BUT
THERE WOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE FOR A FLOODING THREAT AS STORMS
WOULD BE TRAINING.
FOLLOWING THE STORMS, WE ARE LOOKING AT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, SO THE FOG THREAT IS LESS THAN 10%. HOWEVER,
WE COULD SEE SOME STRATUS FORM. THIS WOULD ASSIST IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE EASTERN CWA WITH THE WESTERN CWA STILL SEEING LOW
60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
AN 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGIONS WILL SIT IN PLACE OF THE LONG-TERM AS LOWS
EJECT OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY LLJ TO
FUNNEL MID AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA AS WELL AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, THE 500 MB LOW LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND SEND STRONGER COLD FRONTS INTO THE AREA.
THE TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT(S) IS STILL QUESTION, AS
IT(THEY) COULD IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE IS ON THE FENCE IF THERE WILL BE JUST ONE STRONG
FRONT OR TWO. CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE
CONVECTION BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NOON IS 85%. CURRENTLY,
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HOLDING STRONG AROUND
10-15%.
SUNDAY EVENING, THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
MILD RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN, EXTENDING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, ABOUT 24 HOURS AFTER THAT RIDGE MOVES IN, WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER LOW MOVING IN OVER THE WEST COAST AND OVERRUN THE RIDGE,
LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START OFF NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WE EXPECT TO SEE
LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE 60S, POTENTIALLY NEAR 70 FOR THE EASTERN
CWA. POST FRONT, LOW 50S TO LOW 60S ARE FORECAST.
WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER ONE OR TWO LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST NEXT WORKWEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP THE PATTERN ACTIVE, BUT
DETAILS ARE SPARSE A THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE COMPONENT RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE MEDIUM CHANCES
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
OF IFR. HAVE A MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT GLD AND MCK.
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR IFR AT MCK AS THEY HAD FOG THIS MORNING,
THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS BETTER CHANCES AT GLD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JDAVIS
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