545
FXUS63 KGLD 111026
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. FOG, WHERE PRESENT, WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
- HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RATON MESA, COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE MAY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH *ANY* THUNDERSTORM.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO SEE A COOL DOWN WITH 80S EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE
THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY).
FOG, WHERE PRESENT, WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.. ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERN EXTENT FROM THE CO-KS BORDER.. WHERE
FORMIDABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (A STRONG CAP) IS APT TO
PERSIST THROUGH PEAK HEATING. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ON THE RATON MESA, COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON MAY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD (VIA SW STEERING FLOW) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO AND EXTREME WESTERN KS (BEHIND THE
DRYLINE) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WHEN/WHERE
MARGINAL HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.. AND DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING, INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, STRONG DCAPE
ETC. WILL FOSTER A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF, LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP
TO ~65 MPH WITH *ANY* HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS (INCLUDING
VIRGA OR DECAYING CONVECTION). MARGINAL.. LOCALIZED.. EASTERN
COLORADO. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 90'S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60'S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
AN 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS WILL SIT IN PLACE OF THE LONG-
TERM AS LOWS EJECT OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHERLY LLJ TO FUNNEL MID AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA
AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES. STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, THE 500
MB LOW LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND SEND STRONGER
COLD FRONTS INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONT(S) IS STILL QUESTION, AS IT(THEY) COULD IMPACT THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS ON THE FENCE
IF THERE WILL BE JUST ONE STRONG FRONT OR TWO. CONFIDENCE THAT
AT LEAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE CONVECTION BETWEEN FRIDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NOON IS 85%. CURRENTLY, THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HOLDING STRONG AROUND 10-15%.
SUNDAY EVENING, THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
A MILD RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN, EXTENDING UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, ABOUT 24 HOURS AFTER THAT RIDGE MOVES IN, WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER LOW MOVING IN OVER THE WEST COAST AND OVERRUN
THE RIDGE, LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START OFF NEXT
WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WE EXPECT
TO SEE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE 60S, POTENTIALLY NEAR 70
FOR THE EASTERN CWA. POST FRONT, LOW 50S TO LOW 60S ARE
FORECAST.
WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER ONE OR TWO LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST NEXT WORKWEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP THE PATTERN
ACTIVE, BUT DETAILS ARE SPARSE A THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN KS AND A WEAK LOW IN
EAST- CENTRAL CO, NW KS AND SW NE WILL EXPERIENCE GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW, ALBEIT WEAK, MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AND EVEN SOME FOG, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
STILL REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM ON THAT WITH HREF SHOWING AROUND A
30-50% (15-25%) CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS (VISIBILITIES) PEAKING
BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z (5-9AM MDT/6-10AM CDT). ONCE WHATEVER
STRATUS DEVELOPS HAS "BURNED OFF", BY AROUND 16Z (10AM MDT/11AM
CDT), VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE AREA WILL RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM A DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE (10-20%) IS TOO LOW IN A
THUNDERSTORM AT EITHER AIRFIELD TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP AT
THIS TIME. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT DECAYING PRECIPITATION
RESULTING IN A BURST OF GUSTY WINDS (30-45 KT) DURING THE
EVENING AS WELL, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD THIS TO
THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST; OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RUN 10-15 KT WITH SPORADIC GUSTS OVER 20 KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BUMGARDNER
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