621
FXUS63 KGLD 111711
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1111 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RATON MESA, COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE MAY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH *ANY* THUNDERSTORM.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO SEE A COOL DOWN WITH 80S EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SET UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WYOMING.
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA IS
BURNING OFF, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BE CLEAR TO START THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO LOW TO MID 90S WITH 850MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 27-29C. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY CLIMB TO BE
10-20 MPH AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO CREATE
SOME CONVERGENCE ZONES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE THAT ALLOWS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TRY AND FORM IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE
ISSUE FOR ALL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS THAT MOST OF THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 700MB. WITH LOWER INSTABILITY IN
PLACE, MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD FORM AND THEN FALL APART FAIRLY
QUICKLY. EVEN FOR STORMS THAT DON'T ENTRAIN DRY AIR, THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND 20-30KTS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP STORMS OF THE
PULSE VARIETY. WITH THIS, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW,
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE AND MAYBE AN INSTANCE OR TWO
OF LARGE HAIL.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WITH ALL THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT, BUT WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP WITH THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE AREA, WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 60S WITH MAYBE
A FEW UPPER 50S WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLY. FOG LOOKS TO BE UNLIKELY
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PROVIDING SOME INSULATION FOR TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW, NOT MUCH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, BUT THE AREA REMAINING UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL BEING PULLED
INTO THE AREA, CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN COLORADO, WITH MORE
SUNNY SKIES FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO RE-DEEPEN OVER THE AREA TOMORROW, LEADING TO A
SPLIT IN THE WINDS WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH, WHILE LOCALES NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER MAY BE
MORE WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY AT 10 MPH.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE LOW PROVIDING FORCING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE ISSUE IS THAT RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE, LIMITING HOW MUCH SHOWERS/STORMS CAN FORM AND
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN COLORADO,
WHERE THE PROFILE IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT MORE MOIST. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR ZERO, AS THE LACK OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO SEVERELY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
TOMORROW NIGHT, CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER PROVIDING INSULATION, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY COOL INTO THE
60S AND MAYBE EVEN THE 70S. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FOG IN
EASTERN COLORADO DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER IS AND HOW
MUCH THE LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN FROM THE PRECIPITATION AND
ADVECTION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
AN 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS WILL SIT IN PLACE OF THE LONG-
TERM AS LOWS EJECT OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHERLY LLJ TO FUNNEL MID AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA
AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES. STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, THE 500
MB LOW LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND SEND STRONGER
COLD FRONTS INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONT(S) IS STILL QUESTION, AS IT(THEY) COULD IMPACT THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS ON THE FENCE
IF THERE WILL BE JUST ONE STRONG FRONT OR TWO. CONFIDENCE THAT
AT LEAST HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE CONVECTION BETWEEN FRIDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NOON IS 85%. CURRENTLY, THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS HOLDING STRONG AROUND 10-15%.
SUNDAY EVENING, THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
A MILD RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN, EXTENDING UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, ABOUT 24 HOURS AFTER THAT RIDGE MOVES IN, WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER LOW MOVING IN OVER THE WEST COAST AND OVERRUN
THE RIDGE, LEADING TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START OFF NEXT
WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WE EXPECT
TO SEE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE 60S, POTENTIALLY NEAR 70
FOR THE EASTERN CWA. POST FRONT, LOW 50S TO LOW 60S ARE
FORECAST.
WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER ONE OR TWO LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST NEXT WORKWEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP THE PATTERN
ACTIVE, BUT DETAILS ARE SPARSE A THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KMCK MAY HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 1000-2000FT THROUGH
18-19Z, BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN IMPROVING AND
CLEARING CONDITIONS. FOR BOTH SITES, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 KTS TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 15% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KGLD HAS THE BEST CHANCE AROUND 22-01Z
WHILE KMCK HAS THE BEST CHANCE CLOSER TO 06Z. ALSO OF NOTE
TONIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE OVER THE TERMINALS FOR A FEW
HOURS FROM 02-08Z, BEFORE THE 850MB LOW PUSHES THE JET OF TO
THE EAST. BE ALERT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK
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