524
FXUS63 KGLD 111958
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
RATON MESA, COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE MAY TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF, LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH *ANY* THUNDERSTORM.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO SEE A COOL DOWN WITH 80S EXPECTED.
- THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BRING BACK WARM
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SET UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WYOMING.
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND FOG THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA IS
BURNING OFF, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BE CLEAR TO START THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO LOW TO MID 90S WITH 850MB
TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 27-29C. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY CLIMB TO BE
10-20 MPH AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO CREATE
SOME CONVERGENCE ZONES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE THAT ALLOWS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TRY AND FORM IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE
ISSUE FOR ALL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS THAT MOST OF THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 700MB. WITH LOWER INSTABILITY IN
PLACE, MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD FORM AND THEN FALL APART FAIRLY
QUICKLY. EVEN FOR STORMS THAT DON'T ENTRAIN DRY AIR, THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND 20-30KTS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP STORMS OF THE
PULSE VARIETY. WITH THIS, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW,
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE AND MAYBE AN INSTANCE OR TWO
OF LARGE HAIL.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WITH ALL THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIKELY END BY MIDNIGHT, BUT WE
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP WITH THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST
TO BE OVER THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE AREA, WHILE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 60S WITH MAYBE
A FEW UPPER 50S WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLY. FOG LOOKS TO BE UNLIKELY
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
PROVIDING SOME INSULATION FOR TEMPERATURES.
TOMORROW, NOT MUCH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, BUT THE AREA REMAINING UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL BEING PULLED
INTO THE AREA, CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN COLORADO, WITH MORE
SUNNY SKIES FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO RE-DEEPEN OVER THE AREA TOMORROW, LEADING TO A
SPLIT IN THE WINDS WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15-20 MPH, WHILE LOCALES NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER MAY BE
MORE WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY AT 10 MPH.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE LOW PROVIDING FORCING FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE ISSUE IS THAT RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE, LIMITING HOW MUCH SHOWERS/STORMS CAN FORM AND
SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN COLORADO,
WHERE THE PROFILE IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT MORE MOIST. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR ZERO, AS THE LACK OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO SEVERELY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
TOMORROW NIGHT, CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER PROVIDING INSULATION, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY COOL INTO THE
60S AND MAYBE EVEN THE 70S. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FOG IN
EASTERN COLORADO DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER IS AND HOW
MUCH THE LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN FROM THE PRECIPITATION AND
ADVECTION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE OVERALL PATTERN ISN'T FORECAST TO
CHANGE MUCH, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND
PLAINS. THAT BEING SAID, MULTIPLE PRONOUNCED TROUGH AND SHORTWAVES
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS, PROVIDING CHANCES FOR
COOLER WEATHER AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ACTIVITY.
SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO START WITH ONE OF THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEMS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AS
THE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THE
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING/GATHERING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. WITH THE MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL FORCING
PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH, SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE
HAIL, AND MAYBE SOME FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FLOODING WILL BE
MORE LIKELY IF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND HELPS FORCE
ADDITIONAL STORMS. SUNDAY, THE STORM CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE OVER OR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, KEEPING
THE BETTER FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
FORECAST TO PUSH IN WITH THE TROUGH AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAX
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
FOR THE NEXT WEEK, THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RETURN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE
AGAIN TO THE EAST. CURRENT 500MB SPREADS FAVOR A LAGGING TROUGH,
WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S AGAIN, BEFORE
THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON TUES/WED. WHEN IT SWINGS THROUGH, WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES. SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE COULD BE POSSIBLE DAILY MON-WED DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH OR SPLIT FLOW. WITH THIS,
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE AROUND 80.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER AND TIED TO
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KMCK MAY HAVE CEILINGS AROUND 1000-2000FT THROUGH
18-19Z, BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN IMPROVING AND
CLEARING CONDITIONS. FOR BOTH SITES, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 KTS TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 15% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KGLD HAS THE BEST CHANCE AROUND 22-01Z
WHILE KMCK HAS THE BEST CHANCE CLOSER TO 06Z. ALSO OF NOTE
TONIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE OVER THE TERMINALS FOR A FEW
HOURS FROM 02-08Z, BEFORE THE 850MB LOW PUSHES THE JET OF TO
THE EAST. BE ALERT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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