865
FXUS63 KGLD 121019
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
419 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (90'S) AND BREEZY (25-35 MPH)
SSW TO SW WINDS TODAY. A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW, THIS
WEEKEND.. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70'S TO LOWER 80'S BY SUNDAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BRING BACK WARM
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BACK TO THE SSW TODAY AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SLOWLY
PIVOTS EAST TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS.. AND A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STRONG INSOLATION WILL,
ONCE AGAIN, FOSTER WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO UPPER 90'S, THE PRESENCE OF A MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS..
CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 6-8C (COMPARED TO
10-16C 24 HOURS AGO).. WILL ESSENTIALLY PRECLUDE DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, EXCEPT AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS (WEST OF THE CO-KS BORDER) WHERE A MEAGER
AMOUNT (100-250 J/KG MLCAPE) OF HIGH-BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ACHIEVED AT PEAK HEATING. IN FURTHER CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY,
HIGH-BASED DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE RATON MESA,
COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO
AREAS SITUATED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE ROCKIES (WEST OF THE
GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA) -- A CONSEQUENCE OF SSW FLOW ALOFT
(I.E. A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO STEERING FLOW).
ROBUST VERTICAL MIXING AND A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSLP TO 850 MB
HEIGHT GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MODEST (~1000-1002
MB) LEE TROUGH WILL FOSTER BREEZY S TO SW WINDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT 25-30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
WITHIN/THROUGHOUT A DEEP (10,000 FT) MIXED-LAYER.. SUGGESTING
SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE OVERALL PATTERN ISN'T FORECAST TO
CHANGE MUCH, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
AND PLAINS. THAT BEING SAID, MULTIPLE PRONOUNCED TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS, PROVIDING
CHANCES FOR COOLER WEATHER AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ACTIVITY.
SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO START WITH ONE OF THE MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, IT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING/GATHERING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. WITH THE MOISTURE
AND ADDITIONAL FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH, SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND MAYBE SOME FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE FLOODING WILL BE MORE LIKELY IF THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND HELPS FORCE ADDITIONAL STORMS.
SUNDAY, THE STORM CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD BE OVER OR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, KEEPING THE
BETTER FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
FORECAST TO PUSH IN WITH THE TROUGH AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
FOR THE NEXT WEEK, THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RETURN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHING THE
UPPER RIDGE AGAIN TO THE EAST. CURRENT 500MB SPREADS FAVOR A
LAGGING TROUGH, WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
90S AGAIN, BEFORE THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON TUES/WED. WHEN
IT SWINGS THROUGH, WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE COULD BE POSSIBLE DAILY
MON-WED DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH OR SPLIT
FLOW. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE
AROUND 80. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER AND TIED
TO AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED IN EASTERN CO, GENTLE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A
COUPLE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE
OF A 35-40 KT LLJ. ACCORDINGLY, VCSH WAS ADDED TO EACH TAF SITE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THOUGH THE CONCERN IS GREATEST AT MCK
FROM 07Z TO 09Z (1-3AM MDT/2-5AM CDT) WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDER ARE IN THE 20-30% RANGE - NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD A
PROB30 GROUP, BUT IF THAT ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER AND/OR
EXPANDS NORTHWARD AN AMENDMENT MAY BE NEEDED.
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
HENCE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
30 KT, PEAKING 21Z TO 00Z (3-6PM MDT/4-7PM CDT). MOST GUIDANCE
HAS THE NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION PASSING TO OUR NORTHWEST YET
AGAIN, HENCE PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN
EITHER TAF; HOWEVER, IF THERE WAS A SHOWER/STORM (15% CHANCE AT
GLD), IT WOULD BE DURING THE 23Z FRI-05Z SAT (5PM-11PM MDT/6PM-
MIDNIGHT CDT) TIMEFRAME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...BUMGARDNER
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