546
FXUS63 KGLD 121728
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1128 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (90'S) AND BREEZY (25-35 MPH)
SSW TO SW WINDS TODAY. A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW, THIS
WEEKEND.. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70'S TO LOWER 80'S BY SUNDAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BRING BACK WARM
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 AND DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
MORNING OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE REGION, WITH
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
RIDGE OVERHEAD, WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN RELATIVELY BROAD ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT SHOULD STILL DEEPEN AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS, WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND MOVE ROUGHLY NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, ANY SHOWER/STORM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY FALL
APART FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE AIR COLUMN.
THIS IS WHY NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA,
IN SPITE OF THE SURFACE LOW PROVIDING A STRONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WIND GUST BETWEEN 50-65 MPH MAY OCCUR AS
SHOWERS DECAY, BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY REMAINS NEAR
ZERO.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST. AS IT DOES SO, IT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ALL THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND OVER THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER, MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES LINGER IN THE 60S AND 70S. FOG
CHANCES REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AS EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION,
IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO NOT BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS
(UNLESS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES COOL RAPIDLY).
TOMORROW, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CLOSER TO THE AREA. AS IT DOES,
IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SATURATION AND WITH
THE SURFACE LOW KEEP CONVERGENCE ZONES IN THE AREA.
TOMORROW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
CREATES A STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST,
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FIRE UP WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE STRONG FORCING IN THE AREA,
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY FORM AND PROGRESS. THAT
BEING SAID, THE INSTABILITY MAY BE TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE PRIOR CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS LINGER. IF
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY, THEN ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
MOST CASES, THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD JUST SUPPORT MARGINAL LEVELS OF
EACH HAZARD. THAT BEING SAID, IF WE GET MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND/OR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE.
TOMORROW NIGHT, INSTABILITY SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS, STORMS
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THAT
BEING SAID, THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE
LOW TO WRAP ON ITSELF AND ALLOW FOR TRAINING STORMS. IF STORMS DO
TRAIN, THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE, THE
AREA SHOULD HAVE SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TRY TO ADVECT IN AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE OVERALL PATTERN ISN'T FORECAST TO
CHANGE MUCH, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
AND PLAINS. THAT BEING SAID, MULTIPLE PRONOUNCED TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS, PROVIDING
CHANCES FOR COOLER WEATHER AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY, THE STORM CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD BE OVER OR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, KEEPING THE
BETTER FORCING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS
FORECAST TO PUSH IN WITH THE TROUGH AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
FOR THE NEXT WEEK, THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RETURN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHING THE
UPPER RIDGE AGAIN TO THE EAST. CURRENT 500MB SPREADS FAVOR A
LAGGING TROUGH, WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
90S AGAIN, BEFORE THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON TUES/WED. WHEN
IT SWINGS THROUGH, WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE COULD BE POSSIBLE DAILY
MON-WED DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A TROUGH OR SPLIT
FLOW. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE
AROUND 80. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER AND TIED
TO AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AFTER THAT, WINDS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH SPORADIC GUSTS TO 25 KTS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (15% OR LESS) AFTER 00Z. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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