570
FXUS63 KGLD 131141
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY IN EASTERN CO AND EXTREME WESTERN KS
(ALONG/WEST OF HWY 27) BETWEEN 4-10 PM MDT. QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND NUISANCE FLOODING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 4-8 PM CDT.
- SUNNY SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS (THIS AFTERNOON) AND
ROCKIES (TONIGHT). SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH (NEAR THE CA-NV-AZ BORDER AT 09Z THIS
MORNING) WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NM THIS AFT-EVE.. THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS SUNDAY MORNING.
20-30 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOWER-LEVELS
(SURFACE TO 850 MB).. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MODEST,
BAGGY LEE CYCLONE IN COLORADO.
SSW FLOW ALOFT (ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH) WILL FOSTER, AND LIKELY MAINTAIN, A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION..
IN THE FORM OF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS AND/OR CONVECTIVE REMNANTS
(CLOUD COVER EMANATING FROM WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN
NM).. LIMITING INSOLATION AND PREVENTING ANY MEANINGFUL
RECOVERY/REJUVENATION OF AN ALREADY MODIFIED/DEPLETED ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER (6.5-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES), THE NET
EFFECT OF WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NO MORE THAN
~250-750 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFT-EVE. WITH SUBSTANTIVE UPPER
FORCING (SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH)
UNLIKELY TO ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE MAJORITY OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN/NEAR THE GOODLAND CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO LOW-LEVEL FORCING, THE MOST PRONOUNCED OF
WHICH (I.E. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE LEE
CYCLONE) WILL RESIDE IN EASTERN COLORADO.. WHERE S-SSW STEERING
FLOW (MEAN WIND FROM ~190-210 DEG) WILL [1] SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND [2] PROMOTE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UPDRAFT INTERFERENCE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA
CURRENT/RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST APPEAR TO SUPPORT
THIS LINE OF REASONING. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM /TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL
HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO (YUMA
COUNTY) ~22-02 UTC.. WHERE AND WHEN LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS
TO BE MOST APPRECIABLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SUNDAY REMAINS FORECAST FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINISHES
SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH AND
THE AREA TRANSITIONING MORE TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW,
SOME COLDER AIR SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE IN AND HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE 70S AND 80S. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW MAY REMAIN WRAPPED ON ITSELF IN THE PLAINS AND KEEP
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. IF THIS HAPPENS, STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO FIRE UP IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
WEATHER. CURRENTLY, LOCALES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ARE
FAVORED.
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE A CONTINUATION OF
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. WITH THE TROUGH UPSTREAM, SOME HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER AND SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO WARM AGAIN INTO THE 80S AND
90S.
LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE MORE OVER THE PLAINS AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. ON TOP OF A MORE ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR RAIN
LATE TUESDAY, THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES
LIKELY IN THE 70S FOR WED- THU.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AREA MAY GO INTO EITHER SPLIT
FLOW OR RIDGING FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2025
THE WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR CLOUD COVER
(AROUND FL080 TO FL100) AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN CO AND
SOUTHWEST NE LATE THURSDAY EVENING. AS THIS SHIFTS EAST
OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE A LOW (10%) CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AT GLD,
BUT OTHERWISE ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO SHIFTING EAST
LATER DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE 45 KT
LLJ IMPACTING MCK WITH LLWS.
SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
DURING THE MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (10-15%) AT GLD,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPS BENEATH A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WHILE THE
PRECISE TIMING OF LIGHTNING IMPACTS AT EACH TERMINAL REMAINS
AMBIGUOUS, THE 21Z-04Z PERIOD FEATURES THE GREATEST OVERLAP
AMONG THE HIGHRES MODELS, HENCE A PROB30 WAS ADDED DURING THIS
TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH (PARTICULARLY IN A
DIRECTION) TO ADD THIS TO THE PROB30 GROUP JUST YET. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STIFF DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT GLD WHERE THE DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL FAVOR DEEPER MIXING; 25+ KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE COMMON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...BUMGARDNER
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