733
FXUS63 KGLD 131830
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1230 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY IN EASTERN CO AND EXTREME WESTERN KS
(ALONG/WEST OF HWY 27) BETWEEN 4-10 PM MDT. QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND NUISANCE FLOODING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 4-8 PM CDT.
- SUNNY SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS (THIS AFTERNOON) AND
ROCKIES (TONIGHT). SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH (NEAR THE CA-NV-AZ BORDER AT 09Z THIS
MORNING) WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NM THIS AFT-EVE.. THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS SUNDAY MORNING.
20-30 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOWER-LEVELS
(SURFACE TO 850 MB).. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MODEST,
BAGGY LEE CYCLONE IN COLORADO.
SSW FLOW ALOFT (ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH) WILL FOSTER, AND LIKELY MAINTAIN, A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION..
IN THE FORM OF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS AND/OR CONVECTIVE REMNANTS
(CLOUD COVER EMANATING FROM WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN
NM).. LIMITING INSOLATION AND PREVENTING ANY MEANINGFUL
RECOVERY/REJUVENATION OF AN ALREADY MODIFIED/DEPLETED ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER (6.5-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES), THE NET EFFECT
OF WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NO MORE THAN ~250-750
J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFT-EVE. WITH SUBSTANTIVE UPPER FORCING
(SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH) UNLIKELY TO
ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN/NEAR THE GOODLAND CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
BE TIED TO LOW-LEVEL FORCING, THE MOST PRONOUNCED OF WHICH (I.E.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE LEE CYCLONE) WILL
RESIDE IN EASTERN COLORADO.. WHERE S-SSW STEERING FLOW (MEAN
WIND FROM ~190-210 DEG) WILL [1] SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AND [2] PROMOTE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPDRAFT
INTERFERENCE. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS VIA
CURRENT/RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS LINE OF
REASONING. THE 06Z NAM NEST INDICATES LITTLE (IF ANY)
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN CO THIS AFT-EVE.. AND IS
THEREFORE LESS SUPPORTIVE IN THAT RESPECT. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM /TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/ CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO (YUMA COUNTY) ~22-02 UTC.. WHERE AND WHEN
LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE MOST APPRECIABLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN ESSENTIALLY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AS THE TROUGH THAT IS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH,
PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE WEST. THIS CAUSES THE
FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THIS KIND OF WEATHER PATTERN, STORMS MAY FORM WITH ANY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN A
DEEPER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WE COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK AS STRONGER STORMS PASS OVER, OR AROUND SUNRISE AS
FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS MOVE IN. WE EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED MOVING FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME 20-30
KTS GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORMS START FIRING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...CA
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