953
FXUS63 KGLD 140524
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1124 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
FAVORING LOCALES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. LARGE HAIL
AROUND 1 TO 1.5" AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 TO 70 MPH ARE THE
POSSIBLE THREATS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A CONCERN GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 4-8 PM CDT.
- SUNNY SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUD COVER AND CLEAR SKIES MIXED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS,
WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. WITH THIS, WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15-20 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES FROM THE LOW. ONE IS
VISIBLE ON RADAR AS OF NOON MOUNTAIN TIME, JUST ABOVE HIGHWAY 34.
ANOTHER IS TRYING TO SETUP MORE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ALONG LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE, ORIENTATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AND DOWN INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, CLOSER TO THE
LOW CENTER. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO APPEAR ON RADAR IN THIS
AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER AND MORE HEATING OCCURS,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FIRE UP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES,
INCLUDING IN THE AREA. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 250-1000 J/KG AND SHEAR AROUND 25-35KTS. WITH WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM, MOST STORMS SHOULD JUST PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH OCCASIONAL INSTANCE OF LARGE HAIL FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS AND STORMS THAT LAST THE LONGEST.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND
EAST AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA AND STARTS LIFTING NORTH.
STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY CLUSTERED AT THAT POINT, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 60-70 MPH
WITH DOWNSHEAR VECTORS AROUND 40-50KTS AND LINEAR STORM MOTIONS. ONE
OF THE BIGGER CONCERNS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. WHILE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY, THE SURFACE LOW MAY BE PULLED NORTH AND WRAP IN ON ITSELF,
KEEPING BOUNDARIES STATIONARY IN THE AREA. IF STORMS MANAGE TO
TRAIN, THEN A FEW INCHES OF RAIN BECOME POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLOODING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40, CLOSER TO THE LOW
CENTER. FOR THOSE UNDER CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S. THE REST OF THE AREA, FAVORING ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 27, IS FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH
SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND CLEARING SKIES.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FINISH SWINGING THROUGH
THE AREA AND LIFTING NORTH. AS IT DOES, IT SHOULD EXPAND AND TAKE
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT. THAT BEING SAID, LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE ALONG THE TROUGH AND KEEP A
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA, LIKELY NEAR HIGHWAY 83. FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, A DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS THE LOWER LEVEL DRY OUT.
THAT BEING SAID, MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW SHOULD LEAD TO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FORM, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
LOW AND TROUGH BEGIN PUSHING MORE EAST. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 70S.
FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP,
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT. EVEN SO, THE PRECIPITATION MAY BREAK UP LATER
IN THE MORNING AND ALLOW FOR A STRONGER ROUND OF STORMS TO FORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST, GIVING US OUR BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
INITIALLY, BEFORE A LOW CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S AND NEAR 80.
MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS, IF THEY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
SHOULD EITHER MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OR GET OVERTAKEN BY THE DRY AIR,
ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT.
THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW HIGHS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM ON THE
VERY BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, BUT THEY WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND THE
LOW MOVING OFF, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE. THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN ESSENTIALLY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AS THE TROUGH THAT IS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH,
PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE WEST. THIS CAUSES THE
FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THIS KIND OF WEATHER PATTERN, STORMS MAY FORM WITH ANY SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHEN A
DEEPER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MAIN CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE TRANSIENT
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ALREADY OBSERVED AT GLD, AND WHICH HIGHRES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL SHIFT OR EXPAND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HREF
SAYS (30-50%) CHANCES WILL PEAK THROUGH 09Z AT GLD, BUT BETWEEN
12Z AND 16Z AT MCK. SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BEAR
WATCHING, THOUGH AT THIS TIME COVERAGE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT NO
MENTION WAS MADE IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW, STORMS ARE SLATED TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING MCK BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. A PROB30 WAS
ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK, BUT CONFIDENCE WOULD HAVE TO
INCREASE FOR US TO ADD THAT TO GLD WHERE THE AIRMASS IS DRIER
AND STORM COVERAGE IS LOOKING CLOSER TO 15-20%.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BUMGARDNER
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