301
FXUS63 KGLD 141229
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
629 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 AND ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83 BETWEEN 4-9 PM
CDT. HALF DOLLAR SIZE (1.25") HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- SUNNY SKIES AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
OVERVIEW: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN VICINITY OF THE KS-CO
BORDER AT 12 UTC (REFERENCE SPC MESOANALYSIS 400-250 MB POT
VORT) WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NE (THIS AFTERNOON) AND
SD (THIS EVENING). IN THE LOWER LEVELS, A MODEST/BAGGY LEE
TROUGH NEAR THE CO-KS BORDER AT 12 UTC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON.. PRIOR TO DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING.
AS OF 12 UTC THIS MORNING, SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHEAST CO AND
SOUTHWEST NE HAVE EXITED THE NWS GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
(CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB DEWPOINTS ~10-14C).. AND STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL /700-500 MB/ LAPSE RATES (~7-8 C/KM) WILL FOSTER
MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE) OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.. ALONG WITH MODERATE DCAPE.
EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ~20-30 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
MULTICELLULAR AND/OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION.
VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL (SURFACE TO 850
MB) FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A CAP WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT
SOUTH OF I-70.. WHERE 850 MB DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY DRIER
(~10C) AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEPER (~8
C/KM).. LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A MODEST, BAGGY LEE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS APPEARS TO BE THE LIKELY
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 12 UTC,
FOCUSED UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED NORTH OF THE GOODLAND
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BROADER, NEBULOUS UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN
THE FORM OF MODEST CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY MAY STILL BE PRESENT
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT/RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NE AND FAR NORTHWEST KS
~21 UTC AND AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF I-70 IN THE 21-02Z TIME
FRAME.. WHEREAS THE MOST RECENT (06Z) NAM NEST INDICATES
ESSENTIALLY NO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GOODLAND COUNTY
WARNING AREA. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, EXPECT A CONDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NORTH OF I-70 AND
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83 BETWEEN 21-02 UTC (~4-9 PM CDT). HAIL UP TO
~1.25" IN DIAMETER AND 65 MPH WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE.
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN ESSENTIALLY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE TROUGH THAT IS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHES THE TROUGH
FURTHER NORTH, PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TO THE WEST. THIS CAUSES THE FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AGAIN. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH MID
WEEK, WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THIS KIND OF WEATHER PATTERN, STORMS MAY FORM WITH ANY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. CURRENTLY THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHEN A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MAIN CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE TRANSIENT
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ALREADY OBSERVED AT GLD, AND WHICH HIGHRES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL SHIFT OR EXPAND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HREF
SAYS (30-50%) CHANCES WILL PEAK THROUGH 09Z AT GLD, BUT BETWEEN
12Z AND 16Z AT MCK. SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BEAR
WATCHING, THOUGH AT THIS TIME COVERAGE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT NO
MENTION WAS MADE IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW, STORMS ARE SLATED TO DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING MCK BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z. A PROB30 WAS
ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK, BUT CONFIDENCE WOULD HAVE TO
INCREASE FOR US TO ADD THAT TO GLD WHERE THE AIRMASS IS DRIER
AND STORM COVERAGE IS LOOKING CLOSER TO 15-20%.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BUMGARDNER
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