770
FXUS63 KGLD 141853
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1253 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH
OF I-70 AND EAST OF HWY 25 BETWEEN 3-9 PM CDT. HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES, WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THIS EVENING.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AS WE'VE BEEN EXPECTING FOR A FEW DAYS NOW, THERE IS CONVECTION
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE EVENING AND
EARLY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
YESTERDAY'S STORMS AND STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS.
CURRENTLY, WE ARE SEEING STORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEING
FORCED BY MID-LEVEL VORTICITY. THESE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT NOT POSE MUCH OF A
SEVERE RISK. THE SEVERE RISK WILL COME WHEN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING MEET UP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS BASICALLY
STALLED OUT JUST EAST OF KS HIGHWAY 25. ONCE THESE FEATURES MEET,
LIKELY BETWEEN 19-00Z, THE MAIN EVENT WILL START FIRING. WE EXPECT
TO SEE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS QUICKLY FIRE WHEN THEY DO MEET AND
MOVE TO THE EAST. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES,
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THE BULK OF THE
TORNADIC THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR LANDSPOUTS AS THE MAIN LINE IS
FIRING, BUT THE THREAT FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO IS NOT 0. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE STORMS TODAY WHILE
CAPE AND FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THERE IS A HEALTHY AMOUNT (30-40
KTS) OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, BUT MOST OF THAT IS SPEED SHEAR, NOT
DIRECTIONAL, AND IS MOSTLY ELEVATED, NOT AT THE SURFACE.
THE STORMS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO START LEAVING THE CWA AROUND 2-4Z
WITH 6Z AS THE LATE EXIT TIME. AFTER THE CONVECTION, THE SKY LOOKS
TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S. LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, INCLUDING MCCOOK TO HILL CITY MAY SEE DENSE
FOG FORMING, IF WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIFT BY
16Z.
TOMORROW, WE'LL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW. THIS WON'T WIPE OUT PREVENT ANY
STORMS FROM FIRING, BUT WITH NO FORCING FEATURES, STORMS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO CONVECTIVE-T INITIATION ONLY, AND LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED.
HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES RANGING
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 40S WITH THE EASTERN CWA BEING MORE DAMP.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, A POTENT LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE PROJECTED TO FIRE
OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS ALREADY THROWN
OUT A DAY 3 MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
ACCOUNTING FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE
STORMS WILL FIRE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT SO FAR, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY THREATS AT THIS
POINT.
PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW
COOLING INTO THE 50S WITH THE EASTERN CWA POTENTIALLY SEEING UPPER
40S LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK ARE FIGHTING MVFR CEILINGS AS OF WRITING
THIS. THE CLOUD DECK IS AROUND 2,500 FEET AGL AND VARYING
BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN, LEANING TOWARDS THE SCATTERED
SIDE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THE CLOUD BASES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 3,000 FEET.
FOR KGLD, SOME DECAYING SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY IMPACT
THE TAF SITE BETWEEN 20-00Z. THIS COULD BRIEFLY DROP US DOWN TO
MVFR, BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE FALLING APART AS IT REACHES
THE AIRPORT.
KMCK WILL SEE THE SPICIER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STARTING AROUND 20-21Z, A BROKEN LINE OF MAY START FIRING,
DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE AIRPORT IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME. WE ARE
WORRIED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS AND THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR KMCK, SO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR RAPIDLY GROWING
CUMULUS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT NO LATER THAN
1-2Z, UNLESS SOMETHING MAJOR CHANGES.
AROUND SUNRISE, KMCK IS SHOWING SIGNS OF A SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER, LEADING TO EITHER FOG OR VERY LOW STRATUS. CONFIDENCE FOR
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS ONLY ABOUT 30-40%, BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA
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