930
FXUS63 KGLD 142237
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
437 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NORTH
OF I-70 AND EAST OF HWY 25 BETWEEN 3-9 PM CDT. HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES, WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THIS EVENING.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AS WE'VE BEEN EXPECTING FOR A FEW DAYS NOW, THERE IS CONVECTION
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE EVENING AND
EARLY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
YESTERDAY'S STORMS AND STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS.
CURRENTLY, WE ARE SEEING STORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEING
FORCED BY MID-LEVEL VORTICITY. THESE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT NOT POSE MUCH OF A
SEVERE RISK. THE SEVERE RISK WILL COME WHEN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING MEET UP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS BASICALLY
STALLED OUT JUST EAST OF KS HIGHWAY 25. ONCE THESE FEATURES MEET,
LIKELY BETWEEN 19-00Z, THE MAIN EVENT WILL START FIRING. WE EXPECT
TO SEE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS QUICKLY FIRE WHEN THEY DO MEET AND
MOVE TO THE EAST. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES,
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THE BULK OF THE
TORNADIC THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR LANDSPOUTS AS THE MAIN LINE IS
FIRING, BUT THE THREAT FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO IS NOT 0. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE STORMS TODAY WHILE
CAPE AND FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THERE IS A HEALTHY AMOUNT (30-40
KTS) OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, BUT MOST OF THAT IS SPEED SHEAR, NOT
DIRECTIONAL, AND IS MOSTLY ELEVATED, NOT AT THE SURFACE.
THE STORMS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO START LEAVING THE CWA AROUND 2-4Z
WITH 6Z AS THE LATE EXIT TIME. AFTER THE CONVECTION, THE SKY LOOKS
TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S. LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, INCLUDING MCCOOK TO HILL CITY MAY SEE DENSE
FOG FORMING, IF WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIFT BY
16Z.
TOMORROW, WE'LL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW. THIS WON'T WIPE OUT PREVENT ANY
STORMS FROM FIRING, BUT WITH NO FORCING FEATURES, STORMS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO CONVECTIVE-T INITIATION ONLY, AND LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED.
HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES RANGING
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 40S WITH THE EASTERN CWA BEING MORE DAMP.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, A POTENT LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE PROJECTED TO FIRE
OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS ALREADY THROWN
OUT A DAY 3 MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
ACCOUNTING FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE
STORMS WILL FIRE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT SO FAR, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY THREATS AT THIS
POINT.
PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW
COOLING INTO THE 50S WITH THE EASTERN CWA POTENTIALLY SEEING UPPER
40S LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 434 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
STORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND WILL BE CLEAR OF BOTH TAF
SITES BY 18Z. WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL 19-20Z, BUT WILL
LARGELY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION. KMCK COULD START SEEING
IMPACTS AS EARLY AS 6Z, BUT MOST WORST IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE
AROUND 11-15Z. THERE IS 20% CONFIDENCE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT KMCK AND 10% CONFIDENCE FOR THE SAME AT KGLD. BY 16Z, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
PICKING UP AGAIN.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA
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