954
FXUS63 KGLD 150539
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AS WE'VE BEEN EXPECTING FOR A FEW DAYS NOW, THERE IS CONVECTION
ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE EVENING AND
EARLY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
YESTERDAY'S STORMS AND STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS.
CURRENTLY, WE ARE SEEING STORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEING
FORCED BY MID-LEVEL VORTICITY. THESE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT NOT POSE MUCH OF A
SEVERE RISK. THE SEVERE RISK WILL COME WHEN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING MEET UP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS BASICALLY
STALLED OUT JUST EAST OF KS HIGHWAY 25. ONCE THESE FEATURES MEET,
LIKELY BETWEEN 19-00Z, THE MAIN EVENT WILL START FIRING. WE EXPECT
TO SEE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS QUICKLY FIRE WHEN THEY DO MEET AND
MOVE TO THE EAST. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES,
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THE BULK OF THE
TORNADIC THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOR LANDSPOUTS AS THE MAIN LINE IS
FIRING, BUT THE THREAT FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO IS NOT 0. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE STORMS TODAY WHILE
CAPE AND FORCING WILL BE PLENTIFUL. THERE IS A HEALTHY AMOUNT (30-40
KTS) OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, BUT MOST OF THAT IS SPEED SHEAR, NOT
DIRECTIONAL, AND IS MOSTLY ELEVATED, NOT AT THE SURFACE.
THE STORMS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO START LEAVING THE CWA AROUND 2-4Z
WITH 6Z AS THE LATE EXIT TIME. AFTER THE CONVECTION, THE SKY LOOKS
TO CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S. LOCATIONS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, INCLUDING MCCOOK TO HILL CITY MAY SEE DENSE
FOG FORMING, IF WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIFT BY
16Z.
TOMORROW, WE'LL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW. THIS WON'T WIPE OUT PREVENT ANY
STORMS FROM FIRING, BUT WITH NO FORCING FEATURES, STORMS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO CONVECTIVE-T INITIATION ONLY, AND LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED.
HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES RANGING
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 40S WITH THE EASTERN CWA BEING MORE DAMP.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, A POTENT LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE PROJECTED TO FIRE
OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS ALREADY THROWN
OUT A DAY 3 MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
ACCOUNTING FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE
STORMS WILL FIRE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT SO FAR, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY THREATS AT THIS
POINT.
PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW
COOLING INTO THE 50S WITH THE EASTERN CWA POTENTIALLY SEEING UPPER
40S LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE ONLY CONCERN AT THE AIRFIELDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ("CAMS") ARGUE THIS WOULD OCCUR EAST OF BOTH
TERMINALS, HOWEVER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OFFERING
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS GIVES PAUSE TO
DISMISSING THE RISK. IF WINDS STAY UP IN THE 5-7 KT RANGE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THE COMBINATION OF DRY
ADVECTION AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING MAY PREVENT ITS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WE'RE NOT BANKING ON THAT. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES, WE MAINTAINED
THE HINT AT SHALLOW FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES AND EVEN INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR CEILINGS AT MCK WHERE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY LESS THAN 3 DEGREES.
LATE MORNING, THE ONSET OF MODESTLY DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO AN
ABRUPT UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL GUST 20 KT OR
HIGHER AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THOSE WINDS EASE
DURING THE EVENING, A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL IN FROM
THE WEST AS THE NEXT WEATHERMAKER BREWS IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BUMGARDNER
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