737
FXUS63 KGLD 150822
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 5-10% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM THIS AFTERNOON.
- A BRIEF WARMUP TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSING ACROSS CHEYENNE AND
KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO DUE TO A SUBTLE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TOWARDS THE STATE LINE WHERE SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST ARE POSSIBLE AS
THIS MOVES INTO NW KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AM ALSO
WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS WELL DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND RECENTLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO THE RAIN EARLIER. AM A LITTLE IFFY ON THE
COVERAGE OF THE FOG AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WHICH IS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SSW WHICH IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY INCLINED TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTON, GRAHAM, DECATUR
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF RED WILLOW AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE E TO
ESE, SOME DENSE FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THAT AREA AS WELL
BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH. ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE DOWN THROUGH
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO ESPECIALLY NEAR SUNRISE DUE TO LITTLE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SO WILL LEAVE THE FOG MENTION THAT WAS
INHERITED IN PLACE.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
WARM UP THIS MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE MID
80S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH A WEAK 850 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LEADING TO BREEZY SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SSE
AS MOISTURE ADVECTION RETURNS WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE A RE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE 850MB JET CONTINUING THE BREEZY WINDS.
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY
SET UP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED STORM TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME THIS SEEMS TO BE
UNLIKELY (LESS THAN 5%). A SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FROM CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING BREACHED THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS THEM AROUND
THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. IF A STORM WERE TO FORM
DO THINK IT WOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED WITH WIND SHEAR
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM AT BEST BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE FIRST PLACE IS AROUND 10% WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT LESS THAN 5%.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE BREEZY SSE WINDS CONTINUING. WILL NEED TO AGAIN KEEP
AN EYE ON FOG POTENTIAL BUT THE START OF A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND THE CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
SO STRATUS MAY BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME OF THIS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, A POTENT LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE PROJECTED TO FIRE
OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS ALREADY THROWN
OUT A DAY 3 MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
ACCOUNTING FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE
STORMS WILL FIRE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT SO FAR, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY THREATS AT THIS
POINT.
PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW
COOLING INTO THE 50S WITH THE EASTERN CWA POTENTIALLY SEEING UPPER
40S LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE ONLY CONCERN AT THE AIRFIELDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ("CAMS") ARGUE THIS WOULD OCCUR EAST OF BOTH
TERMINALS, HOWEVER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OFFERING
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS GIVES PAUSE TO
DISMISSING THE RISK. IF WINDS STAY UP IN THE 5-7 KT RANGE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, THE COMBINATION OF DRY
ADVECTION AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING MAY PREVENT ITS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WE'RE NOT BANKING ON THAT. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES, WE MAINTAINED
THE HINT AT SHALLOW FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES AND EVEN INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR CEILINGS AT MCK WHERE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY LESS THAN 3 DEGREES.
LATE MORNING, THE ONSET OF MODESTLY DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO AN
ABRUPT UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHICH WILL GUST 20 KT OR
HIGHER AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THOSE WINDS EASE
DURING THE EVENING, A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL IN FROM
THE WEST AS THE NEXT WEATHERMAKER BREWS IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BUMGARDNER
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