614
FXUS63 KGLD 160527
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 10-20% CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL, WIND, AND FLOODING.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
TODAY, WE'LL BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW. THIS WON'T PREVENT ANY STORMS FROM
FIRING, BUT WITH NO FORCING FEATURES, STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED TO
CONVECTIVE-T INITIATION ONLY, AND LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED. THERE WILL
BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND ANOTHER SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA. WHILE THE WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS EFFECTIVELY A 0% CHANCE
OF IMPACTING US, THE NORTHWESTERN WAVE COULD. THERE IS A 5-10%
CHANCE SOME OF THE SHOWERS FIRING OFF THAT SHORTWAVE COULD CLIP THE
CORNER OF YUMA COUNTY. THE RAP WAS ALSO SHOWING A LIGHT SHOWER
FORMING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND 18Z TODAY ON A WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 5% FOR THESE FOR
FORM. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES
RANGING FROM AROUND 20 TO AROUND 40 WITH THE EASTERN CWA BEING MORE
DAMP.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. WE ARE EXPECTING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY ADVECTION, MOVING
WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS, WE COULD SEE FOG FORM
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.
OTHERWISE, WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS. MOST OF THESE IMPACT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
TOMORROW, AN 850 MB LOW WILL FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO AND REMAIN
THERE UNTIL THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE WARM,
MOISTER ADVECTION INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT EARLY MORNING
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW/MID 80S, WHICH COULD
LIMIT CAPE A LITTLE, BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.
AS MENTION, THE 850 MB LOW WILL START MOVING INTO THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW LOOKS TO STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO
COLORADO. WITH THE ELONGATED LOW, WE ARE EXPECTING MULTIPLE
INITIATION AREAS ACROSS THE REGION. EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTER
OF THE LOW, WHICH LOOKS TO BE CENTERED IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
AROUND 21Z, THERE IS A DRY LINE. TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW, THERE
WILL BE A COLD FRONT. BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
OFF STORMS.
THE SOUTHERN ZONE WILL LIKELY BE THE LEAST IMPACTFUL TO THE GOODLAND
CWA, UNLESS THE ENTIRE LOW SHIFTS NORTH ABOUT 100-150 MILES. ALONG
THE DRY LINE, WHICH LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM I-70 IN EASTERN COLORADO ON
SOUTH, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START FIRING BETWEEN 20-22Z. THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FIRE FIRST WITH THE
NORTH END OF THE DRY LINE FIRING AS LATE AS 23-00Z. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS I-70.
THIS ZONE LOOKS TO BE A BROKEN, THIN LINE OF ELEVATED STORMS. HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES AND WINDS OF 50-60 MPH LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.
THE FIRST NORTHERN ZONE WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT OF THE DAY.
THIS LINE WILL BE SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST ORIENTED AND PROGRESS TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE START TIME OF THIS LINE IS STILL IN QUESTION,
BUT IT LOOKS TO FIRE BETWEEN 20-22Z, RIGHT AROUND YUMA COUNTY. THIS
COULD BE A MORE SOLID LINE OF STORMS, POTENTIALLY TURNING INTO A
QLCS, ESPECIALLY IF IT GROWS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES EARLY ON WITH 60-75 MPH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN
THREAT LATER IN THE EVENT. THE RISK FOR A TORNADO IS VERY LOW DUE TO
ML-LCLS HOVERING BETWEEN 3-3.75 KM.
THE SECOND NORTHERN WAVE LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND BE LESS SEVERE. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO START FORMING AND
MOVING INTO THE CWA AROUND 0-3Z. THE SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS WAVE
WOULD BE 0.5-1 INCH HAIL, 40-55 MPH WINDS, AND FLOODING. IF THIS
WAVE FORMS IN A EAST-WEST ORIENTATION, FLOODING WILL BECOME A MAJOR
THREAT ALONG THE U.S. 34 CORRIDOR, POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS
20%. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FLOODING THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE
HYDRO SECTION BELOW. IF THIS WAVE DOES NOT TRAIN, THE SAME AREA CAN
EXPECT TO SEE AROUND HALF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THE HAIL AND WIND THREATS LOOK TO BE LOWERING AROUND 4-6Z AND
FINISHED BY 7/8Z. STORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT, THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY WHEN PRECIPITATION WEAKENS AND MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 50S AND
LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CEASE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES, LIKELY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 70S UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN OUR NEXT RIDGE WILL BE
PUSHING INTO OUR AREA. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE 50S WITH
THE EASTERN CWA POTENTIALLY SEEING UPPER 40S LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
00Z CAMS HAVE HINTED THERE'S AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
NUISANCE FOG OR IFR STRATUS NEAR AND WEST OF GLD WHERE
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR EACH CLIMB TO AROUND 20%; FELT THESE
CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION IN THE 06Z TAFS, BUT
OBSERVATION AND MODEL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT
IN CASE A TEMPO GROUP SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RISE
SHARPLY AROUND LUNCHTIME WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT (POSSIBLY HIGHER
AT GLD) MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
GENERATE BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS, HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH
COULD BRING VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. THE LITTLE
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPORTING THESE STORMS SUGGESTS THEY WILL
LACK ORGANIZATION, WITH STORM EVOLUTION DICTATED BY MERGING
OUTFLOWS; THIS MEANS NAILING DOWN TIMING IS A CHALLENGE AT EACH
AIRFIELD. INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE 4 HOUR PERIOD OF
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE, WHICH SEEMS TO BE ROUGHLY 00-04Z BASED ON
AVAILABLE HIGHRES GUIDANCE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE U.S. 34 CORRIDOR HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN
0.25 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN. WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF
FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND MONDAY'S CLEAR
SKIES WILL HELP TO DRY UP THE AREA, MAKING IT MORE RESISTANT TO
FLOODING. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION ABOVE, THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING, EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING A ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF
THE TRAINING STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM, OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES COULD
SEE 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A COURSE OF 6-12 HOURS WITH POCKETS UP
TO 4-5 INCHES. CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS IS ONLY AROUND 10-
20%, BUT IT'S A RISK THAT SHOULDN'T BE DISCOUNTED. CURRENT
CONFIDENCE IN NUISANCE FLOODING (WATER IN FIELDS, FULL DITCHES, LOW
WATER CROSSINGS WITH SOME FLOWING WATER) OCCURRING IN OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES IS ~45%. CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING IN THE SAME AREA IS
ABOUT 20%.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BUMGARDNER
HYDROLOGY...CA
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