209
FXUS63 KGLD 171124
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
ANOTHER WAVE OF VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BUT NOT NEARLY AT
THE INTENSITY AS BEFORE. MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG REMAINS IN PLACE
SO SOME EMBEDDED STORM POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THIS
TIME WILL BE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE SOME FLOODING HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED. ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING DOES STILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE BATCH OF RAINFALL THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY WANING IN INTENSITY AS SOME
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHES IN. ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA, STRATUS SEEMS TO BE
THE MORE LIKELY OPTION DUE TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER FROM THE SHOWERS BUT SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO BREAK FOR
PERIODS OF TIME.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY OVERALL RAIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER DO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL OMEGA IN PLACE
AROUND 5 MICROBARS WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS
AND/OR DRIZZLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. CLOUD COVER
DOES LOOK TO LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE NORTH SO HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S; FURTHER SOUTH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
CONTINUING.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS WYOMING WILL
SEND ANOTHER BATCH OF ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THANKFULLY THIS BATCH LOOKS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO PING PONG BALL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS
WIND SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER TODAY. THE BIG QUESTION FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS IF STORMS WILL REMAIN DISCRETE OR AS STRONG AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS THEY SHOULD CLUSTER INTO AN EASTWARD MOVING MCS. AT
THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY CONCERNS FOR FLOODING AS CORFIDI
VECTORS APPEAR TO BE VERY HIGH AND PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS
THAN ONE INCH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING AS
WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE LONG-TERM WILL START OFF WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP THURSDAY'S
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL, IN THE 70S, AND GIVE US A MODERATE CHANCE
OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FRIDAY, A RIDGE
STARTS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, SLOWLY PUSHING THE
LOW OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT PUTTING US UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS PATTERN COULD LAST OVER THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WE'VE BEEN SEEING AND WARMING US INTO THE 80S, OR
A LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND LEAD TO
ZONAL FLOW. THE ZONAL FLOW WOULD EQUATE TO LESS PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL, BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD LARGELY REMAIN IN 70S.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A POTENT LOW COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST CONUS SOME TIME BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
MORNING, LEADING TO OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM, LOWS LOOK TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S,
ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN CWA COULD SEE SOME UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEEN PLAYING HAVOC ON CEILINGS
AS WHEN RAIN MOVES OVER A LOCATION THEN CEILINGS GO TO VFR
BRIEFLY THEN DROP RIGHT BACK DOWN AGAIN. FOR GLD, THIS APPEARS
TO BE THE LAST OF THE RAIN OTHER THAN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS
OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING. ANTICIPATING STRATUS AND SOME
FOG TO RETURN THIS MORNING, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIFR CEILINGS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF, FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO VFR BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. AM SEEING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30. FOR
MCK, SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH, THEN SIMILAR TO GLD A
PERIOD OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY APPROACH THE TERMINAL NEAR
OR JUST AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD, SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
FOR NOW. DID CONSIDER A AMD NOT SKED DUE TO THE WIND SENSOR NOT
REPORTING BUT DUE TO LIMITED CONCERNS FOR WIND OTHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECASTED OPTED NOT TO DUE TO THE BIGGER AVIATION
CONCERNS BEING RAIN, STRATUS, FOG.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AS OF 2AM MT ARE MOVING TOWARDS AREAS OF SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS THAT HAS ALREADY SEEN SOME FLOODING THIS EVENING.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY BIT WILL NOT HELP THE SITUATION AS ADDITIONAL
EXACERBATION OF FLOODED AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS HITCHCOCK AND
RED WILLOW COUNTIES REMAIN. AM WATCHING CLOSELY RIVER GAUGES AS
WELL ACROSS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AS SOME HAVE SHOWN SOME RISES BUT
CURRENTLY REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING STAGE. PALISADE GAUGE IS
THE ONE OF CURRENT CONCERN AS OF TYPING THIS AS IT CONTINUES TO
RISE AND WOULD FLOW INTO THE REPUBLICAN RIVER.
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS IN THE SOUTHER CWA, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S.
40. THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW THE RAIN
TONIGHT PANS OUT. IF THIS LOCATION GETS 0.5-1 INCH OF RAIN,
CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING WOULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 35%, OTHERWISE IT WILL
HOVER AROUND 15-20%. THIS WOULD BE AN OVERNIGHT FLOODING EVENT, IF
IT WERE TO HAPPEN, POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...TRIGG
HYDROLOGY...CA/TRIGG
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