184
FXUS63 KGLD 171602
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1002 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40) THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RECENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED SOUTH OF THE NWS GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
ANOTHER WAVE OF VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BUT NOT NEARLY AT
THE INTENSITY AS BEFORE. MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG REMAINS IN PLACE
SO SOME EMBEDDED STORM POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THIS
TIME WILL BE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE SOME FLOODING HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED. ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING DOES STILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE BATCH OF RAINFALL THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY WANING IN INTENSITY AS SOME
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHES IN. ALSO WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA, STRATUS SEEMS TO BE
THE MORE LIKELY OPTION DUE TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER FROM THE SHOWERS BUT SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WHERE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO BREAK FOR
PERIODS OF TIME.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY OVERALL RAIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME
LESS WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER DO CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
OMEGA IN PLACE AROUND 5 MICROBARS WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. CLOUD COVER DOES LOOK TO LINGER A BIT LONGER
ACROSS THE NORTH SO HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S; FURTHER SOUTH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S ARE FORECAST DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CONTINUING.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS WYOMING
WILL SEND ANOTHER BATCH OF ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THANKFULLY THIS BATCH LOOKS TO LIE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL TO PING PONG BALL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS WIND SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER TODAY.
THE BIG QUESTION FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IF STORMS WILL REMAIN
DISCRETE OR AS STRONG AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THEY SHOULD
CLUSTER INTO AN EASTWARD MOVING MCS. AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY
CONCERNS FOR FLOODING AS CORFIDI VECTORS APPEAR TO BE VERY HIGH
AND PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
WELL OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE LONG-TERM WILL START OFF WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP
THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL, IN THE 70S, AND GIVE US A
MODERATE CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FRIDAY, A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST,
SLOWLY PUSHING THE LOW OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT PUTTING US
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN COULD LAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WE'VE BEEN SEEING AND
WARMING US INTO THE 80S, OR A LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND LEAD TO ZONAL FLOW. THE ZONAL FLOW
WOULD EQUATE TO LESS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, BUT TEMPERATURES
WOULD LARGELY REMAIN IN 70S.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A POTENT LOW COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST CONUS SOME TIME BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
MORNING, LEADING TO OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM, LOWS LOOK TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S, ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN CWA COULD SEE SOME UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
GLD: ONGOING (AS OF 1545Z) MVFR STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE MORNING.. BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE GOODLAND TERMINAL THIS EVENING (~03-07Z THU),
THOUGH.. RECENT HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40
(30+ MILES S OF THE GOODLAND TERMINAL). LIGHT (6-12 KNOT) N
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW-WNW THIS AFTERNOON.. BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
MCK: ONGOING (AS OF 1545Z) IFR-MVFR STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING TO VFR BY MID-
AFTERNOON. ONCE LOW CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED/SCATTERED.. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE N
OR NW THIS AFTERNOON (REMAINING LIGHT AT ~5-10 KNOTS).. BECOMING
VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AS OF 2AM MT ARE MOVING TOWARDS AREAS OF SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS THAT HAS ALREADY SEEN SOME FLOODING THIS EVENING.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY BIT WILL NOT HELP THE SITUATION AS ADDITIONAL
EXACERBATION OF FLOODED AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS HITCHCOCK AND
RED WILLOW COUNTIES REMAIN. AM WATCHING CLOSELY RIVER GAUGES AS
WELL ACROSS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AS SOME HAVE SHOWN SOME RISES BUT
CURRENTLY REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING STAGE. PALISADE GAUGE IS
THE ONE OF CURRENT CONCERN AS OF TYPING THIS AS IT CONTINUES TO
RISE AND WOULD FLOW INTO THE REPUBLICAN RIVER.
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IN THE SOUTHER CWA, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF U.S. 40. THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW
THE RAIN TONIGHT PANS OUT. IF THIS LOCATION GETS 0.5-1 INCH OF
RAIN, CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING WOULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 35%,
OTHERWISE IT WILL HOVER AROUND 15-20%. THIS WOULD BE AN
OVERNIGHT FLOODING EVENT, IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN, POTENTIALLY
EVOLVING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...VINCENT
HYDROLOGY...CA/TRIGG
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