167
FXUS63 KGLD 172115
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40) THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RECENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED SOUTH OF THE NWS GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
- BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S ON SAT-SUN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJOINING HIGH PLAINS.. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
FRACTURED, WEST-EAST ELONGATED UPPER WAVE EXTENDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHERN WY TO WESTERN NE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
WESTERN-MOST PORTION OF THIS FRACTURED WAVE -- SITUATED OVER
SOUTHWEST WY AT 18 UTC (PER SPC MESOANALYSIS 400-250 MB POT
VORT) -- WILL DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST CO (THIS
AFTERNOON), ESE-SE THROUGH CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST CO (TONIGHT) THEN
EASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE KS-OK BORDER (THURSDAY). AN ILL-DEFINED,
'POST-CONVECTIVE' LOW-LEVEL (MSLP TO 850 MB HEIGHT) PATTERN
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
AND STRATUS HAS ALTERED THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.. LIMITING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO ~250-750 J/KG MLCAPE
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK (OR ALTOGETHER ABSENT) LOW-LEVEL
FORCING.. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE GOODLAND CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE A FUNCTION OF UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CO /I-25 CORRIDOR/. CURRENT AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS LINE
OF REASONING. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL, MORE LIKELY THAN
NOT, BE ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFT AND EARLY THIS EVE (~00-04 UTC, 6-10 PM
MDT). RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF COLORADO SPRINGS. GIVEN
THAT RIGHT-MOVER MOTION IS FROM THE WNW-NW (~295-325 DEG) AT
15-25 KNOTS.. ANY CYCLONIC UPDRAFT(S) WOULD LIKELY REMAIN S AND
SW OF THE GOODLAND CWA. DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE
DIGGING ESE-SE THROUGH CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST CO LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT MAY WELL FOSTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM-OF
AND/OR DIRECTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GOODLAND CWA IN THE ~04-12
UTC TIME FRAME.. MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 (IN CLOSER VICINITY TO
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE). PRECIP CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST-
EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE (AFTER SUNRISE THU).. WITH
DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
FRI-SAT: EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND.. AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SUPPLANTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION.
SUN-TUE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, ONE WOULD EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
GLD: ONGOING (AS OF 1545Z) MVFR STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE MORNING.. BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE GOODLAND TERMINAL THIS EVENING (~03-07Z THU),
THOUGH.. RECENT HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40
(30+ MILES S OF THE GOODLAND TERMINAL). LIGHT (6-12 KNOT) N
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW-WNW THIS AFTERNOON.. BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
MCK: ONGOING (AS OF 1545Z) IFR-MVFR STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING TO VFR BY MID-
AFTERNOON. ONCE LOW CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED/SCATTERED.. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE N
OR NW THIS AFTERNOON (REMAINING LIGHT AT ~5-10 KNOTS).. BECOMING
VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page