297
FXUS63 KGLD 181108
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING MORE HIT AND MISS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
- CONDITIONAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREAT.
- BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S ON SAT-SUN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, AN MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO MAINLY WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES
CURRENTLY BUT SHOULD MOVE INTO GOVE AND POSSIBLY GRAHAM COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNRISE. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLOW CORFIDI VECTORS SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME TRAINING POTENTIAL BUT NOT TO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING DUE TO PWATS BEING LESS THAN ONE INCH
AND OVERALL RAINFALL RATES NOT TO PARTICULAR IMPRESSIVE. WITH
THAT SAID, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF
NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OCCURS BUT CONFIDENCE
IN EVEN THAT IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10% AS OF RIGHT NOW.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, DO THINK THAT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AM NOTICING A 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS BAND DEVELOPING WITHIN THE FLOW DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SO HAVE INCLUDED IN A CORRIDOR OF 15-24% CHANCES OF RAIN TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL,
PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT BEST, WHEREVER THE HIT AND MISS
RAINFALL DOES OCCUR. BEHIND THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND SUBSIDENCE
WILL PUSH IN BRINGING IN DRIER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENDING
RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY POSSIBLY REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
PUSH TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ONLY REASON BRINGING THIS UP IS THAT
RAP APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AND BRINGS THAT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN QUICKER AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SUB 15% RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE FACT THE RAP
IS CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER, IF OTHER GUIDANCE BEGINS TO GET MORE
ON BOARD WITH THE RAP SOLUTION THEN OBVIOUSLY RAINFALL WILL
NEED TO BE PUT INTO THE FORECAST. IF THAT RAINFALL DOES SET UP
FURTHER TO THE NORTH THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AGAIN AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS. SOMETHING THAT COULD IMPACT
ANY FOG POTENTIAL WOULD BE CLOUD COVER FROM THAT CLUSTER OF
STORMS, SO WITH THAT WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG MENTION AT THIS
TIME.
FRIDAY, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM AS A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
DOES LOOK TO FORM AS WELL ALONG WITH CURRENT FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S WOULD ACTUALLY BREACH OUR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS
MAINLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW ALONG WITH WITH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SEEN WITH A 500MB AND 250MB JETS IN PLACE ALBEIT
NOT THE STRONGEST ONLY AROUND 70-75 KNOTS FOR THE 250MB JET.
WITH ALL OF THIS SAID CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOME IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AT
THIS TIME AS LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER ONLY AROUND 6.0- 7.0
C/KM AND CAPE AROUND 700-1200 J/KG. WITH THE AMOUNT OF WIND
SHEAR, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LARGE HAIL THREAT IF A
STRONGER UPDRAFT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED HELPING KEEP HAIL ALOFT
LONGER. THE LOCATION OF THE THIS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE TIED
TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH GUIDANCE IS
STRUGGLING WITH ON LOCATION WITH IT RANGING ANY WAY FROM
CHEYENNE/DUNDY COUNTY TO DECATUR/SHERIDAN COUNTY TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH THE
LOCATION WHICH IS KEEPING ME FROM INTRODUCING RAINFALL INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO CURRENT INCONSISTENCY WITH THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
FRI-SAT: EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND.. AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SUPPLANTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION.
SUN-TUE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, ONE WOULD EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
WATCHING SOME STRATUS DEVELOP ON SATELLITE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
GLD TERMINAL. A LACK OF OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE AREA OF
THAT FEATURE CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT CEILINGS MAY BE,
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HAVE SEEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS SO HAVE
OPTED TO GO THAT ROUTE UNTIL/IF THE STRATUS MAKES IT HERE. AT
THIS TIME NO FLIGHT CATEGORY DEGRADATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR MCK. 10-15% CHANCE OF SOME HIT AND MISS SHOWERS FOR EACH
TERMINAL STARTING AS EARLY AS 17Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF THESE AND THE LOWER
CHANCES FOR IMPACTS FOR EACH TERMINAL WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. MAY AGAIN HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A
10-20% CHANCE FOR MORE STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR WINDS, NEWEST DATA SUGGESTS SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...TRIGG
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