355
FXUS63 KGLD 181738
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW (~10%) PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER (HAIL), SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S ON SAT-SUN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, AN MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO MAINLY WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES
CURRENTLY BUT SHOULD MOVE INTO GOVE AND POSSIBLY GRAHAM COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNRISE. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLOW CORFIDI VECTORS SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME TRAINING POTENTIAL BUT NOT TO
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING DUE TO PWATS BEING LESS THAN ONE INCH
AND OVERALL RAINFALL RATES NOT TO PARTICULAR IMPRESSIVE. WITH
THAT SAID, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF
NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OCCURS BUT CONFIDENCE
IN EVEN THAT IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10% AS OF RIGHT NOW.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, DO THINK THAT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AM
NOTICING A 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND DEVELOPING WITHIN THE FLOW
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED IN A CORRIDOR OF 15-24%
CHANCES OF RAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL, PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT BEST,
WHEREVER THE HIT AND MISS RAINFALL DOES OCCUR. BEHIND THE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH IN BRINGING IN DRIER MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENDING RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY POSSIBLY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
PUSH TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ONLY REASON BRINGING THIS UP IS THAT
RAP APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AND BRINGS THAT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN QUICKER AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SUB 15% RAINFALL CHANCES DUE TO THE FACT THE RAP
IS CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER, IF OTHER GUIDANCE BEGINS TO GET MORE
ON BOARD WITH THE RAP SOLUTION THEN OBVIOUSLY RAINFALL WILL NEED
TO BE PUT INTO THE FORECAST. IF THAT RAINFALL DOES SET UP
FURTHER TO THE NORTH THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AGAIN AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS. SOMETHING THAT COULD IMPACT
ANY FOG POTENTIAL WOULD BE CLOUD COVER FROM THAT CLUSTER OF
STORMS, SO WITH THAT WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG MENTION AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM AS A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO FORM AS WELL ALONG WITH
CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S WOULD ACTUALLY
BREACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
40-50 KNOTS MAINLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW ALONG WITH
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SEEN WITH A 500MB AND 250MB JETS IN
PLACE ALBEIT NOT THE STRONGEST ONLY AROUND 70-75 KNOTS FOR THE
250MB JET. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOME
IN AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME AS LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MEAGER ONLY
AROUND 6.0- 7.0 C/KM AND CAPE AROUND 700-1200 J/KG. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LARGE HAIL
THREAT IF A STRONGER UPDRAFT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED HELPING KEEP
HAIL ALOFT LONGER. THE LOCATION OF THE THIS AT THIS TIME APPEARS
TO BE TIED TO THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH GUIDANCE
IS STRUGGLING WITH ON LOCATION WITH IT RANGING ANY WAY FROM
CHEYENNE/DUNDY COUNTY TO DECATUR/SHERIDAN COUNTY TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH THE
LOCATION WHICH IS KEEPING ME FROM INTRODUCING RAINFALL INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO CURRENT INCONSISTENCY WITH THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
FRI-SAT: EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND.. AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SUPPLANTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION.
SUN-TUE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, ONE WOULD EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
GLD: MVFR CEILINGS (~2,500 FT AGL) IN NORTHEAST CO AT 17Z THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST KS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE GOODLAND TERMINAL
~18-20Z, THOUGH.. CEILINGS MAY LIFT ABOVE 3,000 FT AGL BY THAT
TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. N-NNW WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.. BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SSW AND INCREASE TO 12-17 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AND MODESTLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE
MORNING, BY THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS (~2,500 FT AGL) IN NORTHEAST CO AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN NE AT 17Z THIS MORNING WILL
MAINTAIN A HEALTHY DISTANCE (50+ MILES) FROM MCCOOK AND LIFT
ABOVE 3,000 FT AGL BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. N-NNW WINDS AT 10-15
KNOTS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON..
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.. MODESTLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING
THE LATE MORNING, NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...VINCENT
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