883
FXUS63 KGLD 182317
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
517 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83 LATE FRIDAY AFT-EVE (~5-10 PM MDT). A
SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE,
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S ON SAT-SUN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
OVERVIEW: A BROAD, COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
TODAY: SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER CENTRAL KS AT 18 UTC (PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS 400-250 MB POT VORT) WILL PROGRESS E-ENE INTO EAST-
NORTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ADDITIONALLY.. A COOL,
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.. LIMITING
INSTABILITY/MLCAPE TO ~250 J/KG AT PEAK HEATING. EXPECT LITTLE,
IF ANY, POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE GOODLAND CWA.
TONIGHT: A COMPACT UPPER LOW/WAVE IN EASTERN MT AT 18 UTC..
SITUATED ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER, COMPLEX
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.. WILL DIG SSE INTO WESTERN-
SOUTHERN SD BY ~12 UTC FRIDAY MORNING. FOCUSED UPPER FORCING
/DPVA/ WITH THIS FEATURE MAY WELL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ~06-12Z FRIDAY MORNING -- OVER NORTHEAST WY
AND SOUTHWEST SD (150-200 MILES N OF THE GOODLAND CWA). EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40'S TO LOWER
50'S.
FRIDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE IN SD WILL DIG SSE
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN.. AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF.. A BROAD LEE CYCLONE/TROUGH IN WESTERN KS
MAY AID IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (~23-04
UTC, 5-10 PM MDT). MORNING CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER
WAVE IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY ALTER/INFLUENCE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST NE AND NORTHWEST KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.. LENDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
WHETHER OR NOT (AND IF SO, TO WHAT EXTENT) CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP. OUTPUT FROM CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM
NEST SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
SAT-SUN: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A COMPLEX, DISJOINTED SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY (1) A SINUOUS, SPEEDY NORTHERN STREAM
JET AT HIGHER LATITUDES IN CANADA AND (2) A SPEEDY, INCREASINGLY
SINUOUS SOUTHERN STREAM JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST,
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND 4-CORNERS.. WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTH AMERICA
THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO (AND MORE LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY) THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET.. A FRACTURED BRANCH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET
(MANIFESTING AS SLOW MOVING/NEARLY-STALLED WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS) WILL NO DOUBT INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL COMPLEXITY/
UNCERTAINTY TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN (AND
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS) OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.. OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS, IN
PARTICULAR.. WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
MON-WED: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN ROCKIES OR HIGH PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IF THIS IS THE CASE.. ONE WOULD EXPECT ACTIVE/
DYNAMIC WEATHER. BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TYPICALLY DECREASES WITH RANGE. BELOW
AVERAGE, IN THIS CONTEXT, IS INTENDED TO COMMUNICATE A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN CONFIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH /INHERENT-TO/ INCREASED
PATTERN COMPLEXITY, E.G. PATTERNS CHARACTERIZED BY CUT-OFF WAVES
AND MULTI-BRANCHED JET/WAVE INTERACTIONS, AMONG OTHER FACTORS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2025
THE FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINING AROUND FL050 SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SWITCH AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SUFFICIENTLY
LIGHT WINDS AT MCK THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. WHILE THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW, WITH HREF CHANCES RUNNING AROUND 10-20%,
GLAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE
AROUND SUNRISE. GIVEN THIS LOW PROBABILITY BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH
IMPACT OUTCOME, MADE MENTION OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN A TEMPO
GROUP AT MCK FROM 09Z-13Z (4-8AM CDT).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BUMGARDNER
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