395
FXUS63 KGLD 061704
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1104 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER (ALBEIT CLOSER TO NORMAL) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S.
- DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
(IF CLOUD COVER THINS-OUT). IF CLOUD COVER THINS-OUT AND FOG
DOES NOT DEVELOP, SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST MAY EXIST OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
TODAY: LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAS DEPOSITED A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS (CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES ~5C) OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AT 0630 UTC, SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE LOWER 40'S (YUMA) TO THE MID 50'S (LEOTI/HILL CITY).
ONGOING ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 --
ASSOC/W MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE (LOCATED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST CO
AT 06 UTC, PER SPC MESOANALYSIS 400-250 MB POT VORT) -- WILL
ABATE BY SUNRISE (~09-12 UTC MON) AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE.. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. ONGOING LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD OVER SD-NE. WITH PERVASIVE
STRATUS AND WEAKENING HORIZONTAL THERMAL ADVECTION.. THE
COOL/MOIST, HOMOGENOUS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA WILL TEND TO RESIST MODIFICATION. EXPECT OVERCAST
SKIES AND AN ATYPICALLY SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 50'S.
TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA/KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE DEPTH AND AREAL
EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE REGION IN THIS PERIOD. THE
SHALLOWEST PORTION OF THE RESIDUAL COOL/MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (E.G. SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA) AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS (E.G. KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE,
CO). THESE LOCATIONS, IN PARTICULAR, ARE MORE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND (POTENTIALLY) DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT (AND/OR, SOMEWHAT IRONICALLY, STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT). IF CLOUD COVER THINS AND FOG/STRATUS DOES *NOT*
DEVELOP.. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 30'S AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
TUESDAY LEADING TO TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW
60S. MID WEEK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AMPLIFIES
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. SOME BREEZIER WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH MID WEEK WHICH MAY BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT
AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS.
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOW ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WHICH MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR THE AREA. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH SURFACE LOW. WIND AND
PERHAPS SOME FIRE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WOULD PERHAPS BE THE MAIN
THREATS BUT EXACT DETAILS ARE MURKY AT THIS RANGE BUT THE
PATTERN NEEDS TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR
FURTHER TRENDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
STRATUS AND A COMBINATION OF FOG/DRIZZLE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. ANTICIPATING SOME TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENTS (IFR TO MVFR FOR GLD AND MVFR TO VFR FOR MCK) AS
THE AFTERNOON GOES ON AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN.
DRIZZLE/FOG IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR GLD SO WILL CONTINUE THE
4SM TEMPO AS WELL FOR THAT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR VFR CEILINGS RETURNING STARTING AROUND 01Z ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OCCURRING HOWEVER.
TOWARDS THE MORNING, WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP FAVORING MCK AT THIS TIME. THIS
THREAT SEEMS A BIT MORE CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DON'T HAVE MUCH SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL NOT
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN UPCOMING
TAF ISSUANCES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
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