971
FXUS63 KGLD 070717
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
117 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA A FEW HOURS ON
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BY
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING: DESPITE LITTLE OR NO ANALYZED MUCAPE (~100
J/KG OR LESS PER 05-06Z SPC MESOANALYSIS) AND NO DISCERNIBLE
LOW-LEVEL OR MID-LEVEL FORCING.. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
RECENTLY (~0500-0530 UTC) DEVELOPED IN OF THE KS-NE BORDER,
NEAR ST. FRANCIS. WHAT ABOUT THE UPPER LEVELS? WELL, AN
ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND.. AT/WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SHEAR AXIS, IN NORTHERN CO.. A
RELATIVELY VIGOROUS WAVE IS APPARENTLY PRESENT (PER 06Z SPC
MESOANALYSIS 400-250 MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY). UPPER FORCING
ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE.. AND SOME DEGREE OF LAYER-LIFTING AND
RELEASE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.. APPEAR TO BE THE CULPRIT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES (PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS) NEAR THE KS-NE
BORDER DO SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT, E.G.
DECREASING THETA-E WITH HEIGHT, 'MOIST BELOW, DRY ABOVE'
PROFILES (IN THE MID-LEVELS, AT LEAST). IF THIS THE CASE,
ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK EAST OF HWY 283 BY
08-09Z (2-3 AM MDT).. IN CONCERT WITH /SLIGHTLY IN ADVANCE OF/
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM CO INTO
NORTHWEST KS. WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.. A CLEARING TREND
THEREAFTER COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP A FEW
HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE (~10-14Z) THIS MORNING.
TODAY-TONIGHT: WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER, MODIFICATION OF THE
COOL/MOIST HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL
COMMENCE TODAY. EXPECT A MODEST WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50'S TO MID 60'S TODAY AND LOWS IN THE 40'S TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED ON WED, WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 60'S TO MID
70'S. WHILE BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY ASSIST
IN WARMING, STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION COULD OFFSET WARMING TO SOME DEGREE.. OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AT LEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SEES SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S CURRENTLY. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 80S
RETURNING FOR HIGHS. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
BREEZY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA GUSTING 30-35
MPH. WE ARE FORECAST TO GET A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HELPING KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE ANY CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER. HUMIDITY VALUES ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT
DUE TO THE FACT WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BEHIND THE
TROUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT BAY TO PRECLUDE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
FORECAST ON SATURDAY. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY POSSIBLY GUSTING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S VIA A STRENGTHENING 850 AND 700MB JET IN RESPONSE TO
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN WHAT
OCCURRED THIS PAST WEEKEND; EVEN WITH DEEP MIXING PERHAPS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR. A COLD FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH MAY BE THE
ONLY POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12Z GFS INDICATES A STRONG
850MB JET WITH THE FRONT AND HAS BEEN SPEEDING UP AND
STRENGTHENING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. IF THIS DOES PAN OUT THEN
GUSTY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. AN
INTERESTING FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE COMING DAYS TO
SEE IF THIS TREND DOES CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
GLD: LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE AND INCREASE TO ~8-13
KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON (~00Z WED) AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING (06Z WED). ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AND
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT
WINDS, A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND A CLEARING TREND, FOG MAY
DEVELOP (SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN) A FEW HOURS ON EITHER
SIDE OF SUNRISE (~10-14Z) TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER AND
OTHERWISE.. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL.
MCK: LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE AND INCREASE TO ~8-13
KNOTS TUESDAY EVENING.. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (~06Z
WED). WITH LIGHT WINDS, A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND A CLEARING
TREND, FOG MAY DEVELOP (SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN) A FEW
HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE (~10-14Z) TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER AND OTHERWISE.. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PREVAIL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...VINCENT
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