010
FXUS63 KGLD 080658
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1258 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER A LIMITED PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
IN EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 IN WESTERN KANSAS.
FOG, IF PRESENT, WOULD DISSIPATE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
- WARM THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
80S.
- POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
TODAY: STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW /WARM ADVECTION/
WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING (~12-18Z) AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON (15-21Z). EXPECT
MODESTLY BREEZY (~15-25 MPH) SOUTH WINDS AND FURTHER AIRMASS
MODIFICATION/WARMING TODAY, ALBEIT SOMEWHAT MUTED IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATUS MAY LINGER
THROUGH PEAK HEATING.. WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60'S
(EAST) TO MID 70'S (WEST).
TONIGHT: NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
/WARM ADVECTION/ COULD FACILITATE A RESURGENCE OF STRATUS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH..
GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT
(AND IF SO, TO WHAT EXTENT) LOW CEILINGS MAY REDEVELOP.. LENDING
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO OVERNIGHT LOWS, ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS/ NEBRASKA BORDER COUNTIES
(IN CLOSE VICINITY TO A BROAD LEE TROUGH/CYCLONE).. WHERE MODEST
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40'S IN NORTHEAST CO
TO MID-UPPER 50'S IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BRING BACK HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. THAT BEING SAID, THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND HELP BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGING AND RELATIVELY
HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW 20%. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, BUT GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY FAVORS HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO BRING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
PUSHES TO THE EAST. WHILE IT IS FAIRLY LIKELY THAT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WHEN AND HOW DEEP THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IS CURRENTLY IN QUESTION. ENSEMBLE 500MB
SPREAD SHOWS A WIDE SPREAD IN HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, LEADING TO A WIDE RANGE OF WHAT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LOOK LIKE.
AT THE VERY LEAST, THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASED WINDS AND
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MOST GUIDANCE DOES CURRENTLY
FAVOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND LEAVE US MORE WITH HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, HURRICANE PRISCILLA MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE
INLAND ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE AREA. WITH THE OVERALL
FAVORING OF A NORTHERLY TRACK, THIS MAY KEEP THE DEEPER PORTIONS
OF THE SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING THE AREA
FROM EXPERIENCING WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH (CURRENTLY 15-30%
CHANCE FROM NBM). TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARM ON
SATURDAY WITH 80S AND MAYBE A FEW 90S, WHILE SUNDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER BY AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREES.
NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
VARIANCE IN HOW FAR THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES AND WHETHER OR
NOT ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AS A
WHOLE, THE TROUGHING SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
AND CLOSE TO AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOW END CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO FORECAST, WITH THE MAIN LIMITER CURRENTLY
BEING HOW MUCH MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT TUE OCT 7 2025
GLD: VFR CEILINGS ~5000 FT AGL THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR (~1500-2500 FT AGL) BY SUNRISE (12Z) WED
MORNING.. AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW /WARM ADVECTION/
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR
CANNOT BE RULED-OUT DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCATTER TO VFR DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
(18-21Z). LIGHT S TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-20 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SE WINDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW /WARM ADVECTION/
MAY FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MCCOOK DURING THE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON (~15-18Z WED). SUB-VFR
CEILINGS, IF PRESENT, WOULD LIKELY LIFT TO VFR (~3500 FT AGL)
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SSE-SE BY SUNRISE, INCREASING TO 12-20 KNOTS BY MID-LATE
MORNING (~15Z) AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SE WINDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...VINCENT
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