714
FXUS63 KGLD 082313
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
513 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
- POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. WHILE THAT WOULD GENERALLY PROMOTE WARMER
TEMPERATURES, CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK IN THE WEST WHERE A SURFACE
LOW IS PUSHING IN AND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. AS THE CLOUD
COVER CLEARS, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING INTO THE 70S. WITH
THIS, COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER SHOULD REACH THE 70S WHILE
THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS IN THE 60S. WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE 10-
20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH AS THE ADVANCING LOW HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BROADEN AND PUSH MORE INTO
THE AREA. AS IT DOES SO, WINDS SHOULD LOWER A BIT CLOSER TO 10 MPH,
WHILE STILL REMAINING FROM THE SOUTH. THE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR MORE
CLEAR SKIES IN THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID, MOST OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD SEE CLOUD COVER MOVE BACK IN AND CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE TRIES TO WRAP INTO THE AREA. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHES OF FOG FORMING WHERE THE MOISTURE CURLS
IN, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S
WHERE THE SKIES ARE CLEARER AND WINDS ARE WEAKER IN EASTERN
COLORADO. THE REST OF THE AREA MAY REMAIN IN THE 50S.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD LIGHTEN THE WINDS BELOW 10 MPH AND HAVE THEM SHIFT
TO BE MORE FROM THE WEST. THE LOW SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO PUSH
MOISTURE EAST, THOUGH LOCALES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 MAY HAVE CLOUD
COVER FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 80S, WITH MAYBE UPPER 70S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER
AREA.
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
KEEPING WINDS AROUND OR BELOW 10 MPH WHILE VARYING IN DIRECTION.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE DRY AIR INTRUSION. PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO MAY SEE MORE OF A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WITH HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SWINGING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND HURRICANE PRISCILLA. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
40'S AND 50S AGAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAIN FORECAST TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THAT BEING SAID,
ENSEMBLES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MAY BE DEEPER AND/OR MOVE FARTHER WEST, BRINGING SOME COOLER
AIR TO THE AREA. WHILE NOT MUCH, FRIDAY MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES MAX
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER LOW DIGS. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH ON EITHER DAY FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST
TO STREAM ALONG THE FRONT RANGES AND OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PUSH EAST AND
HELP BRING A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER,
WHEN AND HOW THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF
SPREAD AND SOME VARIATION ON WHAT COULD HAPPEN. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT THE TROUGH IS EITHER TO BROAD OR PUSHES NORTH,
PREVENTING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA FROM BECOMING TOO DEEP AND
WEAKENING HOW STRONG THE COLD FRONT IS. WITH THIS, WIND GUSTS AROUND
30-50 MPH SEE LIKELY WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE SEEMS TO
ONLY BE A 10% CHANCE THAT EITHER DAY WOULD HAVE WIND GUSTS APPROACH
60 MPH, SO CONCERNS AREN'T TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAY ALLOW SUNDAY TO
SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AGAIN.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MONDAY IS FORECAST TO START COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH ENSEMBLES
SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE FAIRLY BROAD AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. WITH THIS,
MOST OF THE WEST AND THE PLAINS WOULD BE ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGHING, KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE MODERATED. WE ALSO
WOULD EITHER SEE A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOP IN THE REGION, OR
ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEPENDING ON IF UPPER SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT BREEZY WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST FAVORING MULTIPLE DAYS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-35 MPH.
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THESE DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY
MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AT
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OUT. OVERNIGHT,
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z
WITH FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
MID MORNING AT KGLD AND EARLY AFTERNOON AT KMCK WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
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