117
FXUS63 KGLD 091711
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1111 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.
- WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
- POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
TODAY, THE UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LIGHTEN THE WINDS BELOW 10 MPH AND
HAVE THEM SHIFT TO BE MORE FROM THE WEST. THE LOW SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE EAST, THOUGH LOCALES EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 MAY HAVE CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S, WITH MAYBE UPPER 70S FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER AREA.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
KEEPING WINDS AROUND OR BELOW 10 MPH WHILE VARYING IN DIRECTION.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE DRY AIR INTRUSION. PARTS
OF EASTERN COLORADO MAY SEE MORE OF A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SWINGING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FROM THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND HURRICANE PRISCILLA. LOWS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE 40'S AND 50S AGAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAIN FORECAST TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. THAT BEING
SAID, ENSEMBLES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES MAY BE DEEPER AND/OR MOVE FARTHER WEST,
BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE AREA. WHILE NOT MUCH, FRIDAY MAY
HAVE TEMPERATURES MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH THE UPPER LOW DIGS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE
THROUGH ON EITHER DAY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST TO STREAM ALONG THE FRONT
RANGES AND OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PUSH
EAST AND HELP BRING A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER, WHEN AND HOW THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH STILL
SHOWS PLENTY OF SPREAD AND SOME VARIATION ON WHAT COULD HAPPEN.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE TROUGH IS EITHER TO BROAD
OR PUSHES NORTH, PREVENTING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE AREA FROM
BECOMING TOO DEEP AND WEAKENING HOW STRONG THE COLD FRONT IS.
WITH THIS, WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-50 MPH SEE LIKELY WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. THERE SEEMS TO ONLY BE A 10% CHANCE THAT EITHER
DAY WOULD HAVE WIND GUSTS APPROACH 60 MPH, SO CONCERNS AREN'T
TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAY ALLOW SUNDAY TO SEE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 80S AGAIN.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MONDAY IS FORECAST TO START COOLER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING IT WOULD BE FAIRLY BROAD AND SLOW TO
PROGRESS. WITH THIS, MOST OF THE WEST AND THE PLAINS WOULD BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGHING, KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
MORE MODERATED. WE ALSO WOULD EITHER SEE A PERSISTENT SURFACE
LOW DEVELOP IN THE REGION, OR ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
DEPENDING ON IF UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS
SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT BREEZY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
FAVORING MULTIPLE DAYS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-35 MPH. SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THESE DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY
MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
FOR KGLD... CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA. LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG
SETTING UP OVER THE TERMINAL AS A SURFACE RIDGES NUDGES IN WITH
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE REASON CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGHER IS THAT DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO MOVE IN
AND INHIBIT FOG/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 15/16Z, WARMING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DISSIPATE ANY CLOUDS OR FOG THAT
DEVELOPS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE EAST TO AROUND 10-15
KTS.
FOR KMCK... CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z AS THE
LAST OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE FROM THE SOUTH, BUT COULD BEGIN TO TRY AND SHIFT
FROM OUT OF THE NORTH DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE LOW DRIFTS. TONIGHT, DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN AND AS
TEMPERATURES COOL WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THEY MAY
DEVELOP EARLY AROUND 03-06Z AND THEN LINGER UNTIL ABOUT 12Z. THE
REASON FOR THE EARLY EXIT IS THE ADVANCING RIDGE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PUSH IT ALL SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS AROUND 70% THAT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP. THE
POTENTIAL INHIBITOR IS IF DRIER AIR CAN MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE AND LESSEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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