126
FXUS63 KGLD 310428
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1028 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/70S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
DAY GUSTING 30-40 MPH BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES AS WE LOSE INFLUENCE FROM THE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT, WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
YESTERDAY ARE FORECAST AS THE WIND AND MIXING BRING DOWN SOME
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. A SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. NO FURTHER FROST/FREEZE
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED THIS FALL AS THE ENTIRE AREA HAS SEEN A
HARD FREEZE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
LIGHT AROUND 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO QUICKLY FALL AFTER
SUNSET AS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING ENSUES, BUT A WARMING
TREND MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE
AREA. 12Z HREF ACTUALLY SHOWS A 10-20% CHANCE OF SOME STRATUS OR
SHALLOW RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. NOT CONCERNED FOR
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
FAIRLY LARGE AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING CLOSER TO THE DEW POINT.
FRIDAY, A SOUTHWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS, CLOUD
COVER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WARMEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SOME VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SPRINKLES, FLURRIES
OR EVEN GRAUPEL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE VIA NAM AND RAP
SOUNDINGS DOES REACH 0C UNTIL AROUND 820-800MB. WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ALSO SUPPORTS FLURRY POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE RAP HAS A LARGER AREA OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE DRY AIR BUT
WEAKER LIFT VERSUS THE NAM HAS BIT MORE OF A CONCENTRATED AREA
OF MOIST AREA BUT STRONGER LIFT. DESPITE WHICHEVER SOLUTION DOES
VERIFY CONTINUE TO THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR
THE FLURRY/SPRINKLE MENTION. THE STRONGEST LIFT IS ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR
HALLOWEEN BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE
OBSERVED.
OVERNIGHT HALLOWEEN AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER AND MORE
BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA HELPING CLOUD
COVER TO DISSIPATE. A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS IN STORE
AGAIN AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
LOW/MID TEENS AND EVEN WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME TEENS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
INCLUDING NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE GET A LITTLE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.
SUNDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING BREEZY WINDS AGAIN TO THE AREA. GFS AND ECWMF BOTH SHOW
850MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ECMWF HAS A LITTLE
STRONGER 700MB WINDS DUE TO A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTED JET VERSUS
THE GFS WHICH IS A BIT MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED AND WEAKER. IF
THE ECWMF VERIFIES THEN SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE
VERSUS THE GFS WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WOULD
OCCUR. ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME CURRENTLY FAVOR THE GFS
ORIENTATION BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME SPREAD HOWEVER. HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
AS WELL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE
ECWMF SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL TO LOW END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE ALSO DOES FAVOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA BUT IF THE FRONT
WERE TO MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE QUICKER AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
CAN OCCUR WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOW 80S CAN OCCUR. NEAR
RECORD TO EVEN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ON THE TABLE
IN THAT SCENARIO. FOR COMPARISON THE RECORD HIGH FOR GOODLAND
FOR NOVEMBER 2ND IS 81 SET BACK IN 1931.
A RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN THEN CURRENTLY IS FORECAST TO SET UP AS
WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG OF
RIDGING WEST OF THE AREA AS WE ARE EXPERIENCING CURRENTLY. THIS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES F OR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. TOWARDS
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT IS
WAY TO EARLY TO LOOK AT ANY POTENTIAL HAZARDS, IF ANY AS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SPREAD REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW
DEEP IT ACTUALLY MAY BECOME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND WILL DOMINATE UNTIL AROUND 19Z. AROUND 19Z,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES MAY FORM ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND, EXPECT
VIRGA, LIKELY AS SNOW BUT SUPERCOOLED WATER MAY ALSO BE MIXED
IN.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page