626
FXUS63 KGLD 310724
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
124 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/70S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 123 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
TODAY, WE WILL SEE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS AXIS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AROUND BETWEEN 21Z
FRIDAY AND 03Z SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.
HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON EVENING, WINDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START FALLING BELOW FREEZING AROUND 3-6Z. WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL AXIS IN MIND, GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL
SADDLE/COL POINT FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. AT 850 MB, THERE
WOULD BE A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THIS LEADS TO A 15-30% CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING BETWEEN 18Z AND 3Z.
THERE IS FAIRLY LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE, WHICH IS LIMITING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT GFS AND ECMWF CROSS SECTIONS,
THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE MOIST AIR LAYER BETWEEN 300 MB AND 700 MB
AND SOME WEAK OMEGA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SPRINKLE
AND FLURRIES, BUT NOT IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION. SPRINKLES ARE FAVORED
OVER FLURRIES, AS THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS
HAPPENING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES CAN COOL.
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS THE
SKY WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 20S. THERE IS A
35% CHANCE THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.
SATURDAY, WE WILL HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO
WARM INTO THE 50S AGAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 30 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
INCLUDING NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE GET A LITTLE DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.
SUNDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING BREEZY WINDS AGAIN TO THE AREA. GFS AND ECWMF BOTH SHOW
850MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. ECMWF HAS A LITTLE
STRONGER 700MB WINDS DUE TO A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTED JET VERSUS
THE GFS WHICH IS A BIT MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED AND WEAKER. IF
THE ECWMF VERIFIES THEN SOME GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE
VERSUS THE GFS WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WOULD
OCCUR. ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME CURRENTLY FAVOR THE GFS
ORIENTATION BUT THERE DOES REMAIN SOME SPREAD HOWEVER. HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
AS WELL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE
ECWMF SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL TO LOW END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE ALSO DOES FAVOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA BUT IF THE FRONT
WERE TO MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE QUICKER AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
CAN OCCUR WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOW 80S CAN OCCUR. NEAR
RECORD TO EVEN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ON THE TABLE
IN THAT SCENARIO. FOR COMPARISON THE RECORD HIGH FOR GOODLAND
FOR NOVEMBER 2ND IS 81 SET BACK IN 1931.
A RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN THEN CURRENTLY IS FORECAST TO SET UP AS
WE REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG OF
RIDGING WEST OF THE AREA AS WE ARE EXPERIENCING CURRENTLY. THIS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES F OR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. TOWARDS
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT IS
WAY TO EARLY TO LOOK AT ANY POTENTIAL HAZARDS, IF ANY AS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SPREAD REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW
DEEP IT ACTUALLY MAY BECOME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND WILL DOMINATE UNTIL AROUND 19Z. AROUND 19Z,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES MAY FORM ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND, EXPECT
VIRGA, LIKELY AS SNOW BUT SUPERCOOLED WATER MAY ALSO BE MIXED
IN.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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