681
FXUS63 KGLD 311015
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
415 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/70S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 123 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
TODAY, WE WILL SEE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS AXIS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AROUND BETWEEN 21Z
FRIDAY AND 03Z SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 50S.
HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON EVENING, WINDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START FALLING BELOW FREEZING AROUND 3-6Z. WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL AXIS IN MIND, GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL
SADDLE/COL POINT FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. AT 850 MB, THERE
WOULD BE A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THIS LEADS TO A 15-30% CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING BETWEEN 18Z AND 3Z.
THERE IS FAIRLY LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE, WHICH IS LIMITING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT GFS AND ECMWF CROSS SECTIONS,
THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE MOIST AIR LAYER BETWEEN 300 MB AND 700 MB
AND SOME WEAK OMEGA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SPRINKLE
AND FLURRIES, BUT NOT IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION. SPRINKLES ARE FAVORED
OVER FLURRIES, AS THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS
HAPPENING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES CAN COOL.
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS THE
SKY WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 20S. THERE IS A
35% CHANCE THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.
SATURDAY, WE WILL HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO
WARM INTO THE 50S AGAIN. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 30 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW DIGGING INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
AS THE TROUGHS SHIFT EAST, AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM WEST TO
EAST. FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA, THE FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY MOVE THROUGH
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY WITH VERY LITTLE VARIANCE IN BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WITH A LATE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PROVIDING SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 70S WITH SOME LOW 80S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE UNLIKELY WITH DRY
AIR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AIR COLUMN. THE DRY AIR IS FORECAST
TO DROP HUMIDITY INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO
SMALL CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WITH THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
HEIGHT GRADIENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH THAT WINDS ARE LOWER THAN
20 MPH. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF WE CAN MIX HIGHER THAN ABOUT 600MB
INTO THE 30-40 KTS WINDS, WHICH WOULD THEN GIVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH. THE CURRENT CHANCE IN ENSEMBLES IS ABOUT 10%.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK BENIGN WITH RIDGING MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST THAT EITHER PUTS US UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS OR IN
ZONAL FLOW. WITH THIS, NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S REMAIN FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL, THOUGH A SHORTWAVE COULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND
TUESDAY AND BRING A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY PASSING THROUGH. THE WEAK FLOW IS
ALSO FORECAST TO KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT, EXCEPT ON MONDAY WHICH
WOULD BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS, FURTHER SOUTH AND OVER THE
AREA. WHEN IT DOES SO, COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50'S AND 60S ARE
MORE LIKELY ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS. SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO FORECAST AS THERE COULD BE SOME MOISTURE
FORCED INTO THE AREA. SNOW REMAINS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE SOME FLURRIES DEPENDING ON WHAT TIME THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH TRYING TO GET DETAILS OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 36 HOURS SPREAD ON WHEN THE TROUGH
WOULD PUSH THROUGH. WE'LL SEE HOW IT EVOLVES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 414 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND WILL DOMINATE UNTIL AROUND 18Z. AROUND 18Z,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES MAY FORM ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND, EXPECT
VIRGA, LIKELY AS SNOW BUT SUPERCOOLED WATER MAY ALSO BE MIXED
IN.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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