451
FXUS63 KGLD 312307
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
507 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/70S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
OVERCAST SKIES ARE IN PLACE IN WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S
ESPECIALLY WITH THIS COOLER AIR MASS. SPRINKLES AND EVEN SOME
FLURRIES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
BUT CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE EAST HAVING THE RELATIVE
HIGHER POTENTIAL DUE TO WHERE THE MOIST LAYER ALOFT IS THE
THICKEST AND THE DRY LAYER IN PLACE IS THE THINNEST. THE PEAK
TIME PERIOD FOR THE SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT ENDING AROUND 02-03Z. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER.
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AS A BROAD SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS AGAIN
FORECAST OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SO
HAVE BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. A CAVEAT TO TEMPERATURES FALLING IS HOW QUICKLY DO WINDS
TURN TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST, IF THIS OCCURS QUICKER THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. IF THE ANTICIPATED RADIATIONAL COOLING DOES OCCUR
THEN THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW TO DEPART LEADING
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE
EAST. FURTHER WEST HOWEVER DUE TO SOME SUBTLE DOWNSLOPING
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH
THE WARMEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
LEADING TO A TRANQUIL DAY FOR THE FIRST OF NOVEMBER.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO SEE A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE
AND ACTUALLY INCREASING A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS WHERE LOCALES ACROSS THE WEST MAY NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING DUE
TO THE HIGHER RESPONSE FROM THE WIND SPEED AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SUNDAY, TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA
LEADING TO DOWNSLOPING AS WINDS BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AS A RESULT IS
FORECAST TO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE 70S TO EVEN LOW 80S. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
IN FORECAST TO BE IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LEAD TO HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUING TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
KS/NE/CO STATE LINE. THERE DOES CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST SIDE OF THINGS
HOWEVER. CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST HAS INCREASED SOME AS
SUSTAINED WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE FORECAST
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE GUSTS. A 25-30 KNOT 700MB JET
REMAINS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS YUMA, KIT CARSON AND INTO
DUNDY, CHEYENNE (KS) AND SHERMAN COUNTIES, BUT OUR MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH (4000-5000 FEET). THIS MAKES ME
WONDER IF WE CAN MIX HIGH ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THAT JET AND IF SO
HOW FREQUENT WILL THE GUSTS BE? THERE IS ALSO INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN GUIDANCE IN DEW POINTS WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS HIGHER
THAN THE NAM, WHICH IS UNUSUAL AS THE NAM IS NORMALLY HAS MORE
MOIST BIAS. I'M LEANING THE FORECASTED DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TYPICALLY DOES FAVOR SOME MIXING OF
LOWER DEW POINTS. CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST HITTING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IS AROUND 50% BUT ONLY AROUND 20% FOR 3 OR MORE
HOURS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. BREEZY WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WINDS GUST MORE CONSISTENTLY AROUND
20-30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
IN THE 50S. THIS THEN BEGINS A PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK OF SOME WARMING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND COOLS THE AREA BACK DOWN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONTS
AS THE WEEK GOES ON DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY FRONT SO THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE DOESN'T APPEAR TO
BE AS DRASTIC.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IS
SEEN IN ENSEMBLE DATA AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE TRACK OF IT. IT MAY END UP
BEING THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE AREA
HOWEVER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 452 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 03Z,
POSSIBLY BRINGING A BRIEF GUST OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIOD OF
CLOUDS AROUND 8000 FEET. OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
NEAR MVFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH SKIES CLEARING BY THE MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY SUNDAY NOVEMBER 2ND
ACROSS THE AREA. BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DAY AND THE
CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURE FOR ASOS SITES WITHIN 10 DEGREES
OF THEIR RECORD.
GOODLAND: 81 DEGREES IN 1931...... CURRENT FORECAST 79 DEGREES
BURLINGTON: 81 DEGREES IN 1931...... CURRENT FORECAST 78 DEGREES
MCCOOK: 80 DEGREES IN 2022..... CURRENT FORECAST 75 DEGREES
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...JRM
CLIMATE...TRIGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page