928
FXUS63 KGLD 010642
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1242 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/70S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST EXITS TO THE EAST, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWEEPING
OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD (10-20%) LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES,
BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TODAY, WE WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 50S TODAY, WITH THE WESTERN CWA BEING
WARMER THAN THE EASTERN. OVERNIGHT, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE NEARING
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
IN THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE FILTERING
IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES, ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
TO AROUND 30S; WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, BUT NEAR SATURATION FOR
THE EASTERN 3 COLUMNS OF COUNTIES. WITH THIS, THERE IS A 15% CHANCE
OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG SUNDAY MORNING. IF WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY AT
7+ KTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 5%.
SUNDAY, THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PULL IN A LOT OF WAA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO DRIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S TO LOW 80S. THERE IS A CHANCE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE
BROKEN, MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
WITH SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES, RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IF 20-40 KTS WINDS
FROM 600-700 MB ARE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN,
IT WOULD LIKELY LAST LESS THAN THREE HOURS AND REMAIN WEST OF KS
HIGHWAY 25. CURRENT CONFIDENCE FOR BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS AROUND 40-50%, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
TO BE MET IS LESS THAN 20%.
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 30S AS THE 500 MB
HIGH INCHES CLOSER TO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, KEEPING THE POLAR
JET IN THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SUNDAY, TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA
LEADING TO DOWNSLOPING AS WINDS BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AS A RESULT IS
FORECAST TO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE 70S TO EVEN LOW 80S. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
IN FORECAST TO BE IN JEOPARDY OF FALLING AS WELL ACROSS THE AREA.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LEAD TO HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUING TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
KS/NE/CO STATE LINE. THERE DOES CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST SIDE OF THINGS
HOWEVER. CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST HAS INCREASED SOME AS
SUSTAINED WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE FORECAST
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE GUSTS. A 25-30 KNOT 700MB JET
REMAINS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS YUMA, KIT CARSON AND INTO
DUNDY, CHEYENNE (KS) AND SHERMAN COUNTIES, BUT OUR MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH (4000-5000 FEET). THIS MAKES ME
WONDER IF WE CAN MIX HIGH ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THAT JET AND IF SO
HOW FREQUENT WILL THE GUSTS BE? THERE IS ALSO INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN GUIDANCE IN DEW POINTS WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS HIGHER
THAN THE NAM, WHICH IS UNUSUAL AS THE NAM IS NORMALLY HAS MORE
MOIST BIAS. I'M LEANING THE FORECASTED DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TYPICALLY DOES FAVOR SOME MIXING OF
LOWER DEW POINTS. CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST HITTING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IS AROUND 50% BUT ONLY AROUND 20% FOR 3 OR MORE
HOURS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. BREEZY WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WINDS GUST MORE CONSISTENTLY AROUND
20-30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
IN THE 50S. THIS THEN BEGINS A PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK OF SOME WARMING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND COOLS THE AREA BACK DOWN. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONTS
AS THE WEEK GOES ON DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
SUNDAY-MONDAY FRONT SO THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE DOESN'T APPEAR TO
BE AS DRASTIC.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IS
SEEN IN ENSEMBLE DATA AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE TRACK OF IT. IT MAY END UP
BEING THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE AREA
HOWEVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE,
WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME FAVORED, AND AROUND SUNSET,
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME THE FAVORITE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY SUNDAY NOVEMBER 2ND
ACROSS THE AREA. BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DAY AND THE
CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURE FOR ASOS SITES WITHIN 10 DEGREES
OF THEIR RECORD.
GOODLAND: 81 DEGREES IN 1931...... CURRENT FORECAST 79 DEGREES
BURLINGTON: 81 DEGREES IN 1931...... CURRENT FORECAST 78 DEGREES
MCCOOK: 80 DEGREES IN 2022..... CURRENT FORECAST 75 DEGREES
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...TRIGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page