629
FXUS63 KGLD 012326
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
526 PM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/70S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS IN PLACE LEADING TO
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEST TO EAST WHICH IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TO THE WEST WHERE THE CONTINUED UPSLOPE
FLOW REGIME CLIMATOLOGICALLY DOES HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
"WARMER". THE CAVEAT MAY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE AROUND 5-10% CHANCE OF SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP
DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS ROUND 5-7 KNOTS AND CLEAR SKIES.
SHOULD THIS FOG DEVELOP THEN SOME FREEZING FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
ON ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
WOULD BE ANTICIPATED.
SUNDAY, TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WHICH WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW NEW RECORD HIGHS
TO BE SET. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DEW POINTS
RESIDING IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S WILL PROMOTE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA. I DID
GO A LITTLE LOWER ON DEW POINT FORECASTS FOR THE DAY AS ALL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SOME LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AREA THAT IS BEING MONITORED IS ACROSS YUMA, DUNDY, NORTHERN
KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE (KS) WHERE A JET FROM A STRONG MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO AND WEAKEN AS THE JET
MOVES AWAY FROM THE MAIN MOUNTAIN WAVE. THE NAM REMAINS THE
STRONGEST WITH THIS JET THAT RESIDES IN THE 700MB LAYER WITH IT
BEING AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. THE ISSUE AT HAND THOUGH IS THAT
MIXING HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 3000-4000 FEET WHICH IS ACTUALLY
COMING IN A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT I WAS SEEING 24 HOURS AGO.
OPTING TO FOREGO ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE WIND SPEED BUT ALSO THE FACT EVEN IF THE WINDS DO OCCUR
ONLY AROUND 10- 20% CONFIDENCE IN THE REQUIRED 3 OR MORE HOURS
FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NOT SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN
WIND SHIFT WITH THIS FRONT CURRENTLY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN KEEPING
SKIES CLEAR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AS WINDS GUST MORE
CONSISTENTLY AROUND 20-30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS FROM A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ACROSS COLORADO.
TUESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MERGE INTO MORE OF BROADER LOW
ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING WIND POTENTIAL LEADING
TO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. MAY AGAIN
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER BUT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY THE LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE
THE WIND AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN AGAIN TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER
AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN WARM UP AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT BREEZIER FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY PRESENT THEMSELVES TOWARDS LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK DUE TO THIS SO FOR THAT ASPECT IT MAY BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR THE UPCOMING DISTURBANCE,
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND SPREAD
IN ENSEMBLES STILL EXISTS SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
SPECIFICS STILL AT THIS TIME FRAME. IF THE SYSTEM CAN TREK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THEN WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT IF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS FURTHER NORTH THEN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS MAY
BE BECOME THE NORM FOR A FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
WITH VARIABLE WINDS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH ~09-11Z WHEN THEY BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE AREA
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
LOCALLY CRITICAL TO PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT THE
HIGHER CONCERNS IS ACROSS YUMA, NORTHERN KIT CARSON, DUNDY AND
CHEYENNE, KANSAS WHERE A 30-35 KNOT 700MB JET IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE. SOME ASPECTS OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
INCLUDING WARM TEMPERATURES (NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS) AND
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR IN PLAY REMAINS WITH THE WIND. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX HIGH ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THE
700MB JET AS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE ONLY AROUND 3000-4000 FEET IN
THE AREA OF CONCERN MENTIONED ABOVE ARE FLIRTING IN THAT RANGE
LOOKING AT THE 12Z NAM WHICH IS REPRESENTING THE JET THE
STRONGEST. IF THE JET IS TAPPED INTO THEN WIND GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IF NOT THEN GUSTS ONLY OF 15-20 MPH
WOULD OCCUR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS IN
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE BUT WITH THE JET BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THE
MIXING LEVEL LEAN TOWARDS THE GUSTS BEING MORE SPORADIC OR
SPOTTY IN NATURE. CONFIDENCE IN REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR
THE CWA (15% OR LOWER RH AND 25 MPH OR GREATER WINDS, IN THIS
CASE GUSTS) IS AROUND 50-60%, FOR 2 HOURS CONFIDENCE INS AROUND
20-30% AND FOR THREE OR MORE HOURS TO JUSTIFY A RED FLAG
WARNING IS ONLY 10- 20%. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES CURRENTLY FORECAST
IN THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA AND THE WARM
TEMPERATURES THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FIRE STARTS AS
FUELS CONTINUE TO CURE ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MULTIPLE HARD
FREEZE DAYS WE'VE HAD OVER THE PAST WEEK. OVERALL THE THREAT FOR
EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR EVEN SPREAD IS FAIRLY LOW WITH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER (GFDI) VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AND
BURN INDEX FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S BASED ON KANSAS MESONET DATA
(AT LEAST ON THE KANSAS SIDE). AM SEEING SOME UNSTABLE 0-3 LAPSE
RATES ROUND 8-8.5 C/KM SO IF A LARGE FIRE WERE TO START THEN
THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INTENSITY OF THE FIRE AT
LEAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD A
FIRE START BE AWARE OF A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY TO MORE OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND DURING
THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 2ND. RECORD HIGHS AND CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE LISTED BELOW (IN FAHRENHEIT).
GOODLAND: 81 IN 1931... CURRENT FORECAST 80
BURLINGTON: 79 IN 1931... CURRENT FORECAST 79
MCCOOK: 80 IN 2022...... CURRENT FORECAST 74
HILL CITY: 83 IN 2022... CURRENT FORECAST 72
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...KMK
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
CLIMATE...TRIGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page