867
FXUS63 KGLD 020632
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1232 AM MDT SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/70S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT SUN NOV 2 2025
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A 500 MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL
BE A DOMINATE FEATURE INFLUENCING THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ALLOW EFFICIENT HEATING TODAY. AT 850 MB, A RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY, BRINGING IN
WAA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY
CLIMB TODAY, LIKELY INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A LINE FROM WALLACE, KS TO
YUMA, CO, WHERE THERE IS 60-70% CONFIDENCE LOCATIONS WILL REACH 80-
83 DEGREES.
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES MAY SET HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS, DISCUSSED
MORE IN THE CLIMATE SECTION, AND WILL LOWER RH VALUES LEADING TO
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. MORE FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE
FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LIKELY AROUND 6Z, A COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MORE CLOUDS AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, WHICH MAY GUST INTO THE 15-20 KTS RANGE.
COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME'S HIGH TEMPERATURES, LOWS HAVE BEEN BUMPED
UP A LITTLE, NOW FORECAST TO ONLY COOL INTO THE 30S. SOME PLACES IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA MAY REMAIN IN THE 40S WHICH AREAS AROUND YUMA,
CO MAY SEE UPPER 20S BRIEFLY.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, A HIGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, FOLLOWED BY A LOW. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS SHIFTING A
DECENT AMOUNT. MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST INTO
THE 25-30 KTS RANGE IN EASTERN COLORADO. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB TO
AROUND 60 WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AS WINDS GUST MORE
CONSISTENTLY AROUND 20-30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS FROM A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ACROSS COLORADO.
TUESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MERGE INTO MORE OF BROADER LOW
ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING WIND POTENTIAL LEADING
TO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. MAY AGAIN
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER BUT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY THE LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE
THE WIND AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN AGAIN TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER
AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN WARM UP AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT BREEZIER FOR THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY PRESENT THEMSELVES TOWARDS LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK DUE TO THIS SO FOR THAT ASPECT IT MAY BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. AS FOR THE UPCOMING DISTURBANCE,
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND SPREAD
IN ENSEMBLES STILL EXISTS SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
SPECIFICS STILL AT THIS TIME FRAME. IF THE SYSTEM CAN TREK A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THEN WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT IF
THE SYSTEM REMAINS FURTHER NORTH THEN BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS MAY
BE BECOME THE NORM FOR A FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL FAVOR A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY. STARTING AROUND SUNSET, WINDS WILL
BECOME PRETTY VARIABLE, EVENTUALLY FAVORING A NORTH-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION AROUND 6Z TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL A SLIM (5%) CHANCE
OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG FORMING AROUND KMCK BETWEEN 9-15Z
THIS MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT SAT NOV 1 2025
LOCALLY CRITICAL TO PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT THE
HIGHER CONCERNS IS ACROSS YUMA, NORTHERN KIT CARSON, DUNDY AND
CHEYENNE, KANSAS WHERE A 30-35 KNOT 700MB JET IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE. SOME ASPECTS OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
INCLUDING WARM TEMPERATURES (NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS) AND
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR IN PLAY REMAINS WITH THE WIND. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX HIGH ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THE
700MB JET AS MIXING HEIGHTS ARE ONLY AROUND 3000-4000 FEET IN
THE AREA OF CONCERN MENTIONED ABOVE ARE FLIRTING IN THAT RANGE
LOOKING AT THE 12Z NAM WHICH IS REPRESENTING THE JET THE
STRONGEST. IF THE JET IS TAPPED INTO THEN WIND GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IF NOT THEN GUSTS ONLY OF 15-20 MPH
WOULD OCCUR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS IN
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE BUT WITH THE JET BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THE
MIXING LEVEL LEAN TOWARDS THE GUSTS BEING MORE SPORADIC OR
SPOTTY IN NATURE. CONFIDENCE IN REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR
THE CWA (15% OR LOWER RH AND 25 MPH OR GREATER WINDS, IN THIS
CASE GUSTS) IS AROUND 50-60%, FOR 2 HOURS CONFIDENCE INS AROUND
20-30% AND FOR THREE OR MORE HOURS TO JUSTIFY A RED FLAG
WARNING IS ONLY 10- 20%. WITH HUMIDITY VALUES CURRENTLY FORECAST
IN THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA AND THE WARM
TEMPERATURES THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FIRE STARTS AS
FUELS CONTINUE TO CURE ESPECIALLY AFTER THE MULTIPLE HARD
FREEZE DAYS WE'VE HAD OVER THE PAST WEEK. OVERALL THE THREAT FOR
EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR EVEN SPREAD IS FAIRLY LOW WITH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER (GFDI) VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AND
BURN INDEX FORECAST IN THE LOW 20S BASED ON KANSAS MESONET DATA
(AT LEAST ON THE KANSAS SIDE). AM SEEING SOME UNSTABLE 0-3 LAPSE
RATES ROUND 8-8.5 C/KM SO IF A LARGE FIRE WERE TO START THEN
THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INTENSITY OF THE FIRE AT
LEAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD A
FIRE START BE AWARE OF A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY TO MORE OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND DURING
THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT SUN NOV 2 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 2ND. RECORD HIGHS AND CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE LISTED BELOW (IN FAHRENHEIT).
GOODLAND: 81 IN 1931... CURRENT FORECAST 81
BURLINGTON: 79 IN 1931... CURRENT FORECAST 80
MCCOOK: 80 IN 2022....... CURRENT FORECAST 75
HILL CITY: 83 IN 2022.... CURRENT FORECAST 75
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
CLIMATE...CA/TRIGG
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