964
FXUS63 KGLD 030646
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1146 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.
- NO OBVIOUS SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
TODAY, AN 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE MODERATELY VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN IN
EASTERN COLORADO ARE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM TO
AROUND 60 AS THE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SURFACE PRETTY WELL MIXED.
CLOUDS WILL START MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS THE HIGH EXITS
THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
EXTEND A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CWA. THIS AXIS LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH
THE CWA AROUND 6-12Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-
LEVEL FORCING AS THE AXIS MOVES THROUGH, THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH UNTIL ABOUT 12Z. LOCATIONS IN
THE EASTERN CWA ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 100% RH, SO PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ONCE AGAIN PREVENT FOG FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY AND WARM DAY, PRETTY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR 80. THIS DOES CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AS RH
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF KS
HWY 25. HOWEVER, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CWA,
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. AS WE REACH THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES, THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS INCREASES TO ABOUT 30%. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY, THERE
IS CURRENTLY LESS THAN 20% CONFIDENCE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE HIT, BUT AND HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY HAS A 60% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. CURRENT LIMITING
FACTOR IS 500-700 MB WIND GUSTS NOT BEING ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
TUESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MERGE INTO MORE OF BROADER LOW
ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING WIND POTENTIAL LEADING
TO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO EVEN
POTENTIALLY LOW 80S AGAIN RESULTING IN SOME NEAR RECORD HIGH
POTENTIAL. MAY AGAIN NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE
BREEZIER CURRENTLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO AN 850MB AND 700MB JET.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN AGAIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR TO MONDAY,
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY BE BECOME A
LITTLE BREEZY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES ALONG THE NOSE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH.
THURSDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AGAIN LEADING TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS TEMPERATES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. WINDS ARE HOWEVER FORECAST TO BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED GUSTING 25-35 MPH.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GEFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH
WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE INTENSITY OF IT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD AS WELL WITH THE STRENGTH OF A POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT AS WELL WITH IT. IF THE STRONGER FRONT DOES OCCUR WITH IT
THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
ARE WAY TO HIGH. BASED ON OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SIGNAL FOR ME TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME FOR THE TEMPERATURES FORECAST. CONTINUING
TO SEE NO SIGNAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE DURATION
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
0535Z UPDATE: THE INVERSION AT KGLD SEEMS TO HAVE DECOUPLE THE
SURFACE FROM THE STRONGER, POST-FRONTAL WINDS. THIS IS LEADING
TO LLWS AT 200-400 FEET AGL FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 30-40 KTS. A
FEW GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE, BUT THEY WILL
BE SPORADIC.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED OVER BOTH KGLD AND KMCK OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS, BECOMING MORE INFREQUENT AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. BY 11Z,
WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE THEY START COMING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN. GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET, CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 10-15 KTS
RANGE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 410 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4TH. RECORD HIGHS AND CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE LISTED BELOW (IN FAHRENHEIT).
GOODLAND: 83 IN 2020... CURRENT FORECAST 79
BURLINGTON: 84 IN 2020... CURRENT FORECAST 78
MCCOOK: 84 IN 2020....... CURRENT FORECAST 77
HILL CITY: 86 IN 2020.... CURRENT FORECAST 77
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...TRIGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page