714
FXUS63 KGLD 040713
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1213 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL EACH DAY.
- NO OBVIOUS SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CWA. WHILE THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AS THE AXIS MOVES THROUGH, THE LACK OF MOISTURE
IN THE CWA WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND 100%
RH, SO PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ONCE AGAIN
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. WHERE FOG WILL MOST LIKELY FORM, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, SO FREEZING FOG IS NOT A CONCERN
TONIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE A DRY AND WARM DAY, PRETTY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AND TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 80. THIS DOES CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
AS RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF KS HWY 25. HOWEVER, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
CWA, WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS FOR MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. IN THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES, THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KTS INCREASES TO ABOUT 30%. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY, THERE IS
CURRENTLY LESS THAN 20% CONFIDENCE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE
HIT, BUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
NORTHERN YUMA THROUGH HITCHCOCK COUNTIES HAS A 60% CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE. CURRENT LIMITING FACTOR IS 500-700 MB WIND GUSTS NOT
BEING ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA, LIKELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10Z. THERE'S A 40% CHANCE THAT THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT, AND THE FROPA
WILL MIX THE PBL AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, A RIDGE WEST OF THE ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY, TURNING OUR MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW INTO A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO MIMIC MONDAY'S, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, 2 MB RISES IN THREE HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO KEEP
STRONGER WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP
AROUND 30 KTS IN EASTERN COLORADO IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AROUND 40%. WITH THE EXTRA WIND, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY COOL TO THE UPPER 30S, POTENTIALLY STAYING IN THE
LOW 40S. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNRISE, AS OUR NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY A RINSE AND REPEAT OF
THE PATTERN FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AS
WINDS AGAIN BECOME MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY IN WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO START NUDGING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LEADING TO A GRADUAL SHIFT OF
WINDS TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY IS THE DAY WHEN THE RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
BREAK. THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AGAIN LEADING TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE HOWEVER FORECAST TO BE BREEZY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED GUSTING 25-35 MPH. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A POSSIBILITY AS
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AS A
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS A GREATER INFLUENCE ON
THE REGION.
LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EMERGE WITH CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. CONTINUING NOT TO
SEE ANY CLEAR CUT SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION BUT OVERALL MORE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE DURING THIS PERIOD
ALONG WITH BEING MORE PRONE TO STRONGER COLD FRONTS. GEFS
ENSEMBLE SPREAD FROM YESTERDAY IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE DEEPER AND
BACKED UP WITH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH LEADS ME TO
BELIEVE THAT SOME OF THESE COLD FRONTS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING DEPICTED BY DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z GFS. IF THIS
THINKING OF THE MORE BACKED UP SOLUTION OF THE TROUGH DOES END
UP PANNING OUT THEN WINDS ON SATURDAY MAY BE STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECASTED. WILL NEED TO BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
KGLD WILL HAVE A SURFACE HIGH IMPACTING THE WINDS HEAVILY TODAY.
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE CHANGING FREQUENTLY, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 6-7 KTS, BUT A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KMCK WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF INFLUENCE FROM THIS HIGH. HOWEVER,
THIS MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN 12-15Z, KMCK COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
PATCHY FOG. IT'S UNLIKELY IT WILL IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORIES, BUT
WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. IN THE AFTERNOON, KMCK IS EXPECTED TO
SEE WINDS IN THE 8-16 KTS RANGE, BUT THERE IS A 15% CHANCE 20-30
KTS GUSTS ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN AROUND 20-22Z.
TOMORROW NIGHT, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, SO
EXPECT A RAPID NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AROUND 6-12Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MST MON NOV 3 2025
LOCALLY CRITICAL TO PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS YUMA, DUNDY, HITCHCOCK AND RED
WILLOW COUNTIES TUESDAY. A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO SUNDAY IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE WITH WARM, NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
RESULTING IN HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THE MAIN
ISSUE WHEN IT COMES TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
AGAIN THE WIND. THE STRONGER JETS DO LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
GOODLAND FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
(10-20%) THAT THEY COULD SET UP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
INCREASING THE GUST THREAT TO AROUND 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY ABOUT THE SAME AS WHAT THEY
WERE SUNDAY AROUND 4000-4500 FEET. CLOUD COVER IN THE FORM OF
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS APPEARS TO BE MORE PREVALENT THAN SUNDAY AS
WELL WHICH MAY AFFECT TEMPERATURES SOME KEEPING THEM A LITTLE
LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WHICH WOULD RAISE HUMIDITY VALUES
SOME. CONFIDENCE IN 1 HOUR OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS AROUND
40-50% AND CONFIDENCE IN 3 OR MORE HOURS TO WARRANT ANY FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS IS AROUND 10-15% RIGHT NOW. 0-3KM LAPSE RATES
ARE ALSO LOWER AS WELL THAN SUNDAY WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE
THAT EVEN IF A FIRE WERE TO START IT SHOULDN'T INTENSIFY QUICKLY
DUE TO THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF A FIRE WERE TO START BE
AWARE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WOULD SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH FROM
THE WEST DIRECTION CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS A POTENTIALLY WINDIER
PATTERN MAY DEVELOP.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 410 PM MST SUN NOV 2 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4TH. RECORD HIGHS AND CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE DATE ARE LISTED BELOW (IN FAHRENHEIT).
GOODLAND: 83 IN 2020... CURRENT FORECAST 79
BURLINGTON: 84 IN 2020... CURRENT FORECAST 77
MCCOOK: 84 IN 2020... CURRENT FORECAST 77
HILL CITY: 79 IN 2020... CURRENT FORECAST 78
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...TRIGG
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