517
FXUS63 KGLD 050707
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1207 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- NO OBVIOUS SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, SINCE
THE FROPA OCCURRED SO EARLY, WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS WILL LET TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 30S TO LOW 40S THIS MORNING.
DURING THE DAY, AN 850 MB HIGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE EVENING, AND ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
NEAR 60.
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. EASTERN
COLORADO, AND EVEN A COLUMN OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST, MAY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS. THIS WILL
BE DRIVEN BY 0.5-1.5 MB PRESSURE FALLS PER HOUR BETWEEN 21-09Z AND
THE 850 MB LLJ KICKING UP TO 40 KTS. NO COMPOUNDING IMPACTS FROM THE
WINDS (LIKE DUST OR FIRE) ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE STARTS FALLING.
COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S, POTENTIALLY EVEN LOW 40S.
THURSDAY, AN 850 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND AND
TROUGH AS FAR AS TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE A 5-10 DEGREE IMPACT ON THE HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. IF
THE FRONT IS QUICK, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE
FRONT IS SLOWER, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. THE SLOWER OPTION ALSO
GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF LOW-END FIRE WEATHER AND A 5% CHANCE OF
BLOWING DUST CONCERNS, MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BE
BECAUSE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO LOWER RH VALUES AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
THURSDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE IS BANKING ON THE SURFACE REMAINING MIXED,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. WITH PRESSURE RISES UP LIKELY AROUND 1/4 TO 2/3 MB PER HOUR,
THIS IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THE SURFACE
DECOUPLES FROM THE SURFACE, AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST. ON THURSDAY,
A LEE TROUGH IN THE 700-850 MB LAYER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA BENEATH A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. BY FRIDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WHILE THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS A NEAR-SURFACE LOW
THAT TRACKS INTO OKLAHOMA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE TRI- STATE AREA WILL BE
UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER THURSDAY TO SUNDAY STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S AND FALLING TO THE 40S BY SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD WARM
BACK UP WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MONDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEXT TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING
INTO 20S OVER THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT
LOWS RETURN TO THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST TUE NOV 4 2025
UPDATE 7Z: LLWS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE KGLD TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE STRONGER WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, THAT ARE NOT MAKING
IT TO THE SURFACE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, HAVING
PASSED OVER KMCK JUST BEFORE 5Z AND WILL MOVE OVER KGLD AROUND
6Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST
TWO HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
DURING THE DAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT IN A CLOCKWISE FASHION BEFORE
SETTLING TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFTER SUNSET. AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD, THE WEATHER GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. AHEAD
OF ANOTHER FRONT ON THURSDAY, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT
(~6-12Z) ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP IN THE 20-25 KTS RANGE AND
OVERCAST SKIES WILL DOMINATE. MORE INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE
IN THE NEXT TAF DISCUSSION.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...CA
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