106
FXUS63 KGLD 051054
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
354 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ON SATURDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ON
EAST-TO-WEST ROUTES, SUCH AS INTERSTATE 70, WHERE CROSS WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST.
- NO OBVIOUS SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT,
SINCE THE FROPA OCCURRED SO EARLY, WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS WILL LET
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S THIS MORNING.
DURING THE DAY, AN 850 MB HIGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE EVENING, AND ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
TO NEAR 60.
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ARE FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.
EASTERN COLORADO, AND EVEN A COLUMN OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST, MAY
SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS.
THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY 0.5-1.5 MB PRESSURE FALLS PER HOUR
BETWEEN 21-09Z AND THE 850 MB LLJ KICKING UP TO 40 KTS. NO
COMPOUNDING IMPACTS FROM THE WINDS (LIKE DUST OR FIRE) ARE
EXPECTED.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE STARTS
FALLING. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S, POTENTIALLY EVEN LOW 40S.
THURSDAY, AN 850 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND
AND TROUGH AS FAR AS TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A 5-10 DEGREE IMPACT ON THE HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY. IF THE FRONT IS QUICK, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE SLOWER OPTION ALSO GIVES A 40% CHANCE OF LOW-END FIRE
WEATHER AND A 5% CHANCE OF BLOWING DUST CONCERNS, MAINLY IN
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BE BECAUSE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES
WILL LEAD TO LOWER RH VALUES AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
THURSDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE IS BANKING ON THE SURFACE REMAINING
MIXED, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. WITH PRESSURE RISES UP LIKELY AROUND 1/4 TO
2/3 MB PER HOUR, THIS IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE THE SURFACE DECOUPLES FROM THE SURFACE, AND TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN
INCREASINGLY SINUOUS AND AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS LATE THIS WEEK.. CULMINATING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP,
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.. WHERE EPISODIC
PROGRESSIVE CYCLONES WILL PERIPHERALLY AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS
IN THE FORM OF OCCASIONAL DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY: SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, I.E. MODEST DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION AND TEMPERATURE. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO THU), ALBEIT STILL
ABOVE-AVERAGE.. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60'S.
SATURDAY: EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER (ALBEIT NEAR-AVERAGE) HIGHS
AND BREEZY TO STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE HIGHLY
SENSITIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A COMPLEX, PROGRESSIVE MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS (FRI NIGHT) AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY (SAT), LENDING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO WIND MAGNITUDE (HOW STRONG?) IN THE NWS GOODLAND
COUNTY WARNING AREA.. ESPECIALLY AT THIS RANGE. 00Z 11/05
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES
OR 'PULSES' OF COLD ADVECTION, THE FIRST (AND INITIAL NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT) OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR BY SUNRISE (~12Z SAT) AND THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFT-EVE. AT PRESENT,
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS (E.G. 00Z GFS) SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30-40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH. WIND
OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST ROUTES, SUCH
AS I-70, WHERE CROSS-WINDS WOULD BE STRONGEST. HAZE AND
LOCALIZED/EPHEMERAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ASSOC/W BLOWING
DUST MAY EXACERBATE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. GIVEN THAT THE INITIAL
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BY (OR AROUND)
SUNRISE.. AND THAT UNIFORM NORTH WINDS WOULD BE PRESENT
THEREAFTER, THROUGHOUT THE DAY.. WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ASSOC/W BLOWING DUST ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SUNDAY: WEAKENING NORTH WINDS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW, ON SUNDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. HOW MUCH BELOW-AVERAGE WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND UPON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE AND MAGNITUDE/WESTERN-EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
SATURDAY AFT-EVE. HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE VARIES BY A SOLID
~10F, RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 30'S AND LOWER 40'S TO
UPPER 40'S AND LOWER 50'S.. WARMEST IN COLORADO.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS THE DEEP, FULL-
LATITUDE EAST CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS, WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY
BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING IN A CLOCKWISE FASHION AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. ONCE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY, SPEEDS WILL INCREASE. KGLD LOOKS TO HAVE THE
STRONGER GUSTS, MAINLY IN THE 15-25 KTS RANGE, BUT A COUPLE
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNSET. KMCK SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR OF THE BULK OF THE GUSTS, BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST OF
15-20 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE SCREAMING.
FOR KMCK THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LLWS OF 35-45 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH AT 200-500 FEET AGL. KGLD, WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FLOW, HOWEVER SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN. FOR
KGLD, THIS MEANS AS LONG AS THERE ARE STRONG WINDS AT THE
SURFACE, LLWS WILL NOT OCCUR, BUT IF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE
ARE BELOW 15 KTS, EXPECT LLWS.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CA
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